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Prime-time NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you.
Prop play — Caleb Williams OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns at Vikings (+160, BetMGM)
Chicago’s deep-dish pizza is a controversial subject for many. For locals, places like Pequod’s, Lou Malnatti’s and Pizzeria Uno are legendary spots where thick slices of oozing cheese, sauce and toppings are joyfully consumed. However, different regions — primarily the Northeast — consider the artery-clogging delicacies overhyped casserole. New York City’s foldable offerings, in the opinion of New Yorkers, are the unrivaled gold standard.
No matter where you stand on the Second City cuisine (by the way, Chicago’s south side tavern style is my clear-cut winner), the one thing we all can universally agree on is the Bears stink.
It was a promising start to the season, but since coming off a Week 7 bye, the Mice of the Midway have dropped seven straight games, with many of those Ls coming in agonizing fashion. As a result, Matt Eberflus was mercifully relieved of his head coaching duties in late November, with Thomas Brown being temporarily elevated into the role.
All may seem lost in the Windy City, but Williams’ improved play has been a silver lining. His accuracy and decision-making have sharpened as he’s tossed at least two touchdowns in three straight games. Overall, the USC product is a respectable No. 17 in red-zone competition percentage, No. 11 in air yards per attempt (8.3) and No. 13 in total big-time throws (16).
Some have wondered if Williams is truly the franchise quarterback of the present and future. Based on his occasionally excellent execution during these chilly weather weeks, those once-scorching debates have somewhat cooled. Sure, Chicago fans will always second-guess general manager Ryan Poles for passing on Jayden Daniels, but Williams will likely only continue to grow and impress.
On Monday night at U.S. Bank Stadium, bank on the Bears rookie passer to extend his multi-passing TD streak to four.
The EPA data may paint a rosy picture — Minnesota is No. 3 in EPA per play defense — but other measurements clearly indicate the Vikings are a beatable vertical D.
Minnesota has a league-high 20 interceptions, but five QBs since Week 4 have thrown for at least two touchdowns against the Vikings. Given Chicago’s talent at wide receiver — D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze are a laudable group — Williams should spin another pair of end-zone strikes.
At +160, the prop above is too mouthwatering to pass up. Grab a knife and fork and satisfy your betting taste buds.
Prop season record: 15-20 -6.24 units
SGP play — Bijan Robinson anytime touchdown, Brock Bowers 40+ receiving yards, Darnell Mooney 40+ receiving yards (+182, DraftKings)
Bijan Robinson anytime touchdown. Unbelievably, some rando on social media berated this fanalyst repeatedly for ranking Bijan No. 1 overall in the preseason. Since the Falcons running back overcame a slow start and rose to RB5 in total fantasy points scored in 0.5 PPR, that premature mudslinger has fallen quiet. No, Robinson won’t catch pacesetter Saquon Barkley, but the weekly vitriol tossed on X was hilariously unwarranted. Continue to bring the noise, chumps. Bijan is likely to state his top-five case Monday night in Sin City. The Raiders rank No. 8 in rush EPA defense since Week 9, but Maxx Crosby’s absence is significantly altering. Las Vegas, which has given up 13 total TDs to RBs in 13 games, will be quite vulnerable without its premier interior defender. Robinson, who’s No. 6 in missed tackles forced (47) and No. 12 in total red-zone touches (43), should cross the chalk for the ninth time in nine games.
Brock Bowers 40+ receiving yards. In the not-long-ago past, fantasy players purposely abstained from investing in rookie tight ends. Typically, it took young TEs a good 2-3 years to blossom. That antiquated logic simply never applied to Bowers. The Raiders’ primary slot receiver has thrived since Day 1. His route savviness, reliable hands and terrific open-field abilities have exploited man and zone coverages all season long, and he ranks No. 2 in air yards, No. 1 in YAC and No. 2 in juke rate at the position. Most importantly, he’s topped 40 or more receiving yards in 11 of 13 games. Atlanta, which checks in at No. 25 in pass EPA defense since Week 9, jogs out a flimsy at best secondary. The Falcons have only surrendered the 20th-most yards to TEs, but seven plus-sized targets have achieved what’s needed. Whether it's Desmond Ridder or Aidan O’Connell under center, Bowers should sip on a 40.
Darnell Mooney 40+ receiving yards. A generally overlooked receiver months ago, Mooney has truly experienced a breakout campaign. On pace to best his finest stat line of his five-year career (2021: 81-1004-4), he’s developed into a reliable WR2 despite Kirk Cousins’ clear and obvious regression. Examining the advanced metrics, the Falcons wideout is top 25 in total air yards (1,173), deep targets (26), yards per reception (15.3) and total route wins (154). Most alluringly, the Raiders are No. 31 in pass EPA defense over the last five weeks. Also, Mooney’s projected primary assignment, cornerback Decamerion Richardson, sports the fourth-worst coverage grade among qualifying DBs, according to Pro Football Focus, and has allowed a staggering 17.1 yards per reception. Coming off a season-high 142 yards against Minnesota, Mooney should post celestial numbers on Monday night.
SGP season record: 14-23, +0.57 units
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