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Prime-time NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you.
Prop play — Ja’Marr Chase 80+ receiving yards (+100, DraftKings)
Despite having a handful of games remaining, Chase raised questions this week about his future in Cincinnati. As reported by The Athletic, he hand-delivered talking points to be dissected by the media ad nauseam during the months-long offseason by saying, “What’s pushing me most this year with the (team) record is just making memories with the guys I have around me. Who knows what will happen next year?”
To that, fantasy managers and bettors Chase-ing the wideout’s numbers Monday night in Dallas say, “Go ahead and forge those memories, Ja’Marr. Heck, make them historic.”
Rewriting the record books is unlikely, but the Bengals wide receiver should boom in the box score.
The Cowboys are No. 6 in pass EPA defense since Week 9, but Chase is slated to draw a good chunk of cornerback Daron Bland in coverage. On only 79 coverage snaps this season, Bland has surrendered a sky-high 84.9 catch percentage and close to a 100.0 passer rating, according to Pro Football Focus. Most importantly, seven WRs have topped 80 yards against Little D.
Under the surface, Chase’s advanced metrics belt out an upbeat song. On one of the largest workloads in the NFL (9.1 targets per game), he ranks in the top 15 in total air yards (WR13), yards after catch (WR1), yards per target (WR10), QB rating when targeted (WR4) and total route wins (WR7). Frankly, his after-catch abilities alone present quite the solicitation.
The Cincinnati star has eclipsed 80 receiving yards only five times in his 12 games. However, given his extraordinary volume, YAC and memory-making motivation, he’s certainly worth the Chase at plus money.
Prop season record: 14-19 -6.24 units
SGP play — Bengals ML, Chase Brown anytime touchdown, Cooper Rush 175+ passing yards (+130, ESPN Bet)
Bengals ML. The annual midseason about-face Cincinnati fans and followers have grown accustomed never happened. Its playoff hopes remain extremely faint, but as Lloyd Christmas would say, “You’re saying there’s a chance?” Defensive weaknesses remain ever-present for the visitors. Over the last five weeks, the Bengals are No. 27 in overall EPA per play defense. However, Joe Burrow continues to sling it with considerable success. As Dallas’ No. 10 standing in EPA per play D since Week 9 proves, the ‘Boys have dusted themselves off after their fall-of-the-horse start. But despite a couple of offensive flickers, they’re rock bottom in EPA per play offense during that stretch. It’s been a lost season for both franchises, and in a game that has zero business being broadcasted in prime time, look for Cincinnati to extend its season road record to 4-3.
Chase Brown anytime touchdown. Viewers/listeners of “BetMGM Tonight” — which streams live on The Gaming Juice each weekday from 7 to 11 p.m. ET — are fully aware of this scribe’s love for getting down on all props involving Brown. The Canadian product has greatly exceeded even this I-L-L fanboy’s wildest expectations. He’s logged at least 80% of the snap share in four straight weeks, spiked his pass-catching role and scored a touchdown in seven of his last nine games. Whether displaying power runs between the tackles, off-tackle sprints or trustworthy hands in the short field, Brown has added many bandwagon members over the past month. Dallas, a bottom feeder in rush EPA D with a No. 29 ranking since Week 9, is a very gashable unit. On the season, the Cowpokes have allowed 4.46 yards per carry, 139.8 total yards per game and 15 combined TDs to RBs. Don’t be a clown and back Brown.
Cooper Rush 175+ passing yards. The subject of several punch lines immediately following Dak Prescott’s season-ending exit, Rush hasn’t performed terribly since his promotion in Week 9. Evaluators openly shouting their desire to see Trey Lance will continue to wait. Over the last three weeks against the Texans, Commanders and Giants, Rush twirled at least 175 passing yards in each. Over that stretch, the Cowboys quarterback’s standings in adjusted completion percentage (75.4%, QB19) and average depth of target (7.1, QB24) were nothing to text your friends about, but his 41.0 pass attempts per game offered encouragement. So does Monday night’s matchup. Since Week 9, the Bengals are No. 26 in pass EPA defense, giving up an enormous 299.8 passing yards per game. In total, eight QBs have tossed at least 175 passing yards against Cincy. Saddle Rush up.
SGP season record: 14-22, +0.27 units
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