Monday Night Football picks: Bills at Jets
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Prime-time NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you.
Prop play — Dalton Kincaid UNDER 39.5 receiving yards (-115, Caesars)
The tight end landscape this season has been flipped completely on its ear. With Mark Andrews, Sam LaPorta and others sipping Mai Tais on a tropical beach somewhere, unexpected names like Tucker Craft, Brock Bowers and Cole Kmet have blazed a productive trail at the position.
Kincaid, who ranks No. 17 among plus-sized targets in fantasy points per game, is another individual soaking up rays with an umbrella drink in hand.
The Bills TE, who was much sought-after in fantasy drafts, has greatly underwhelmed. Only two times in five games has he tallied 40 or more receiving yards. Over that span, he’s averaged a vanilla 4.8 targets, ranking a surprising No. 23 in catchable target rate. Equally alarming, his bland standing in yards per route run (TE14), target separation (TE19) and yards per target (TE17) don’t inspire much confidence that banner performances are coming.
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Against slot receivers, which Kincaid effectively is, the Jets have done an excellent job with containment. Primary slot DB Isaiah Oliver has surrendered an 88.9 passer rating to assignments. As a collective, New York has allowed the fifth-fewest total TE yards, yielding only 25.6 per game. George Kittle is the only tight end to reach 40 yards against the Jets, and he hit the exact number in Week 1.
Throw in New York’s No. 5 slotting in dropback EPA defense, and living in the land down under feels like the cash-making play with Kincaid.
Prop season record: 9-8 +0.50 units
SGP — Garrett Wilson UNDER 75.5 receiving yards, James Cook UNDER 85.5 rushing yards, Josh Allen OVER 25.5 rushing yards (+134, Caesars)
Garrett Wilson UNDER 75.5 receiving yards. In a sumo-styled showdown, stat lines could suffer — including Wilson’s. Outside of last week’s insane 22 targets for 13 receptions and 101 yards against Minnesota, the Jets wideout hasn’t exactly delivered on his WR1 promise. Prior to his detonation against the Vikings, he finished comfortably south of 75 yards in four straight games. The target volume will likely be there against Buffalo, but his WR46 standing in total air yards and WR91 ranking in aDOT imply several short gains. Whether battling Christian Benford (20.1 passer rating allowed) or Rasul Douglas (138.1), Wilson presumably lands in the 50-60 receiving yards range. Keep in mind, only three WRs have logged 76 or more yards against Buffalo this year.
James Cook UNDER 85.5 rushing yards. The Wolfgang Puck of running backs is likely to overcook the braised duck. After getting skewered Week 1 on the ground, the Jets have tightened the screws in the trenches. Once well outside the top 20 in rush EPA D, they now check in at No. 13. In total, Jeff Ulbrich’s unit has allowed 4.21 yards per carry and 96.0 rushing yards per game, but those numbers are ballooned by Jordan Mason’s season-opening 147-yard mauling. No opposing RB has eclipsed the above number against New York since. With his mediocre production in YAC per attempt (2.70, RB39) and missed tackles forced (9 on 70 attempts), Cook falls short of 86 rushing yards for the sixth-straight time.
Josh Allen OVER 25.5 rushing yards. A strapping, hard-nosed QB with a knack for calling his own number going against a defense that’s top-10 in pocket pressure rate (29.9%) is an ideal OVER chasing formula on rushing yards. Allen tucks and runs 5.2 times per game, having cashed the over on 25.5 yards in three of five games. Last year, the former Wyoming Cowboy saddled up for the necessary amount in one of two games against the Jets. In his first clash of the season against New York, bank on him cracking pads for 26 or more rushing yards.
SGP season record: 5-12, -5.40 units (we may never win again)
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