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Prime-time NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you.
Prop play — Jerry Jeudy OVER 57.5 receiving yards at Broncos (-115, BetMGM)
With microbreweries, terrific restaurants, unique neighborhoods, Red Rocks, little humidity and endless mountain views, Denver is one captivating city. It’s also a deeply ingrained and loyal sports town, one that rivals the likes of Chicago, New York and Boston. And no, the crazy pills didn’t kick in while scribbling that last line.
Having lived in the area for seven years, I quickly learned just how cherished the Broncos are. Tickets are always in high demand, rabid fans squeeze into Empower Field each fall Sunday and game results lead every local newscast. Next to the adjacent Rocky Mountains, there isn’t an entity more valued in Colorado, not one.
For Jeudy, the Mile High City is a place he would like to forget. Though he contributed some meaningful numbers sporadically in a Broncos uniform, the once-prized first-round pick never lived up to lofty expectations. His jettisoning to Cleveland for 2024 fifth- and sixth-round picks last March provided a new lease on life.
Largely due to Deshaun Watson’s incompetent play, Jeudy struggled to deliver even modest production earlier this season. Since Jameis Winston seized control of the offense, the Browns wide receiver has developed into a legitimate and reliable WR1. Over his last four games, Jeudy has averaged 9.0 targets, 6.0 receptions and 94.8 yards per game and scored a touchdown.
At first glance, a matchup against his former employer may seem unattractive. Since Week 8, Denver ranks No. 7 in pass EPA defense. However, Jeudy, who is likely to play roughly 30-40 percent of his snaps from the slot, is bound to match up with arguably the Broncos’ weakest defensive link, Ja’Quan McMillian. The slot cornerback has allowed a 75.9 catch percentage, 111.3 passer rating and the sixth-most yards of any NFL DB.
Only eight wideouts have reached 60 receiving yards against the modern-day Orange Crush this season. Given Jeudy’s personal motivations and mano-y-mano advantage, he’s a solid bet to serve up some REVENGE.
Prop season record: 13-18 -6.14 units
SGP play — Broncos ML, Courtland Sutton 50+ receiving yards, Jerome Ford 10+ receiving yards (+170, ESPN Bet)
Broncos ML. Sean Payton’s plans are aging like fine wine. There were a few initial bumps in the road, but the Broncos — 4-2 in their last six games — are on a path to punch a wild-card ticket. Over the last five weeks, they’re top-15 in both EPA per play offense and defense. They won’t catch AFC West front-runner Kansas City, but a second season appearance with a rookie quarterback will greatly exceed preseason expectations. Cleveland is just 1-4 in road games, and it is bottom-12 in EPA per play offense and defense since Week 8. Thunder should whiny with excitement at home.
Courtland Sutton 50+ receiving yards. Similar to his former teammate’s ascension, Sutton has become Bo Nix’s go-to guy in Denver. The underrated wide receiver has enticed at least 10 targets in three of his last five games, averaging 7.2 receptions and 93.4 yards over the stretch. Given his consistent high volume and No. 2 standing among all WRs in total air yards, Sutton is a sensible parlay inclusion. Applying another lipstick layer: The Browns are No. 25 in pass EPA D since Week 8, and they have allowed the 11th-most yards and 16 games of 50-plus yards to wideouts. Also, Sutton’s projected primary assignment, CB Martin Emerson Jr., has yielded a 116.8 passer rating and the 25th-most yards among DBs. Saddle up the former SMU Mustang.
Jerome Ford 10+ receiving yards. And this is where the sweat really kicks in. Ford is unquestionably the Pinto in Cleveland’s running back room. Proven pounder Nick Chubb is the clear-cut RB1. However, in passing situations, the overlooked Ford is often utilized. Working in tandem with the reinserted starter, he has run 57 total routes over the last three weeks and seen action on 45.1% of team snaps. He has only recorded 10-plus receiving yards in four of nine games, but in a contest in which the Browns should be playing catch-up, Ford should peel out on another 20-25 passing routes. And with the Broncos having surrendered the sixth-most receiving yards to RBs (41.8 per game), the glands shouldn’t overwork.
SGP season record: 13-20, -0.33 units
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