Monday Night Football picks: Ravens at Buccaneers, Chargers at Cardinals
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Prime-time NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you.
Prop play — J.K. Dobbins anytime touchdown at Cardinals (-111, Caesars)
When it comes to Dobbins resembling the tackle-busting player of old, J.K. doesn’t stand for “just kidding.”
The Chargers running back has dialed back the clock.
After two major knee surgeries, Dobbins is once again displaying the burst, power and elusiveness that once had gamers investing serious coin in related markets when he was with the Ravens. In five games this season, he has posted a solid 2.84 YAC per attempt (RB33) and forced 14 missed tackles (RB23). He’s also logged five runs of 15 or more yards, the eighth-most in the NFL.
Most pertinent to the wager above: Dobbins has secured 65.3% of the Chargers’ opportunity share, recorded 11 red-zone touches and rushed for three TDs. Behind a decent offensive line and supported by Greg Roman’s conservative play-calling, he has end-zone splashes in his future, especially against Arizona's flimsy front.
The Desert Birds rank No. 23 in rush EPA defense. Also in six games, they’ve allowed 4.68 yards per carry, 155.5 total yards per game and six combined touchdowns to RBs.
With Gus Edwards sidelined, Dobbins should again play at least 70% of the snaps Monday. In the Sonoran, bank on him splashing six a time or two.
Prop season record: 9-10 -1.60 units
SGP play — Derrick Henry anytime TD, Baker Mayfield 225+ passing yards, Lamar Jackson OVER 35.5 rushing yards (+138, DraftKings)
Derrick Henry anytime TD. See hole. Smash hole. UHHHHHH!!! The Football Frankenstein is fully prepared to post monster numbers on the road. Despite his advanced age and thinning tread, he continues to be the most-feared business decision for would-be tacklers. His strict and extreme workouts each offseason continue to pay enormous dividends. A perfect fit for Baltimore’s scheme, Henry, unsurprisingly, has become an unmitigated scoring machine, leading the league with nine TDs. He’s been given ample red-zone work (18 touches this year) and owns stellar analytics (3.40 YAC/attempt, 21 missed tackles forced), so not even Tampa Bay’s Vita Vea will stuff him. The Buccaneers have allowed only four RB touchdowns this season, but that number climbs on Monday.
Baker Mayfield 225+ passing yards. Baker, Baker the dream maker. For fantasy fans and dedicated player prop investors, the Mayfield rebirth has proven quite profitable. Very much in the NFL MVP conversation, the Tampa swashbuckler has repeatedly sliced and diced defenses. He’s thrown for 300-plus yards in two of his last three games, ranking No. 4 in adjusted completion percentage (79.8). Against a very beatable Ravens secondary and in front of what’s sure to be an emotional local crowd post-Hurricane Milton, Mayfield should again reward supportive audiences. Baltimore is No. 27 in pass EPA defense, surrendering 8.06 passing yards per attempt and 298.2 passing yards per game to QBs. In total, five signal callers have thrown for at least 225 yards against the Bucs. Bake tasty numbers, Mayfield.
Lamar Jackson OVER 35.5 rushing yards. The most explosive QB runner in the league could juke an incensed cheetah in the open field. It’s entirely believable. Whenever Lamar tucks and runs, defenders are immediately placed on skates. On 64 rushing attempts, he’s forced a ridiculous 16 tackles. Averaging 10.7 rushing attempts and a league-high 67.2 rushing yards per game among QBs, he is sure to race to what is required for the seventh-consecutive game this season. Tampa ranks top-half in pocket pressure rate (23.4%) and has yielded the fifth-most rushing yards to signal callers. Due to the favorable matchup and his general tendencies, Jackson should supply plenty of ground action under the prime-time lights.
SGP season record: 5-14, -7.40 units
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