SIGN UP: Get the best player prop and game betting projections at BetAlytics. Use code "JUICE" for a special promo rate.
Prime-time NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you.
Prop play — Romeo Doubs OVER 36.5 receiving yards vs. Saints (-105, DraftKings)
O Romeo, Romeo, wherefore art thou, Romeo?
Well, Juliet, for those who laid a little coin on him, they hope he’s catching American footballs and galloping freely in the open field all the while dodging combative Capulets.
For the sake of her sanity and investor wallets, that scenario may conveniently play out Monday night at Lambeau Field.
New Orleans is a matchup sure to satisfy bettor appetites. Over the last five weeks, the Saints are a tepid No. 15 in pass EPA defense. That may not seem advantageous, but 25 wide receivers have topped the needed number.
Most promisingly, Doubs is slated to exchange season’s greetings with cornerback Alontae Taylor, who without question is the most generous defensive back in the NFL. On 541 coverage snaps, the Saints’ maitre d’ has allowed a league-high 878 receiving yards, 73.1% catch rate and 116.7 passer rating to his assignments. Overall, the Fleur-de-lis has given up the fifth-most yards to wide receivers. So gracious.
Doubs isn’t a world beater by any stretch, but he has proven effective in spurts. Enticing 5.3 targets per game, the Packers wideout ranks No. 24 in aDOT (12.9) and No. 30 in yards per catch (14.1) and has cashed the over on 36.5 yards in eight of 11 games. The resulting 72.7% hit rate on the above prop may be nowhere near the odds of you getting hammered and watching “Home Alone” for the 134th time on Christmas Eve, but they are substantial.
Before you call it a life, Juliet, dance with Romeo one last time.
Prop season record: 15-23 -9.24 units
SGP play — Josh Jacobs anytime touchdown, Josh Jacobs 75+ rushing yards, Marquez Valdes-Scantling 25+ receiving yards (+270, BetMGM w/boost)
Josh Jacobs anytime touchdown and 75+ rushing yards. With temps hovering in the low 30s and a light glaze of mixed precipitation expected to coat Lambeau Field, the Packers running back is bound to resemble your industry standard salt truck that barrels down the highways and byways of the greater Green Bay area. The dude was made for this. Jacobs is a bruising downhill runner who stings any would-be tackler who challenges him. Among qualifying RBs, he is RB9 in YAC per attempt (3.41), RB2 in total missed tackles forced (60) and RB2 in total yards created (1,138). Suffice it to say, Jacobs thumps. Also RB3 in total red-zone touches and a TD scorer in seven of his last eight games, he’s quite likely to achieve both feats in the same game for the eighth time this season. New Orleans’ ineptitude in defending the run — it ranks No. 25 in rush EPA D since Week 10 — only paints a prettier picture. Be a plow, Josh.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 25+ receiving yards. Revenge game? REVENGE GAME! A Packer from 2018 to 2021, MVS is quite familiar with playing December football in Northern Wisconsin. Turning around his in-the-gutter career in recent weeks, he’s recorded multiple chunk gains, whether with Derek Carr, Jake Haener or Spencer Rattler under center. With the latter QB back at the controls, an explosive hookup or two could be in the offing. Green Bay is No. 6 in pass EPA defense since Week 11, but 28 wideouts have grabbed at least 25 yards against it. Most importantly, Valdes-Scantling is slated to see a ton of CB Eric Stokes in coverage. On 339 snaps, the DB has allowed a 62.5% catch rate and a 102.0 passer rating to his assignments. The Saints field stretcher — he’s WR2 in aDOT (17.9) and WR1 in yards per catch (23.6) — crosses the above threshold for the sixth-straight game.
SGP season record: 15-25, --0.03 units
WagerWire's Favorite Things from this Creator:
More: of Brad's Free Picks and Strategies
More Content: The Gaming Juice
We love The Gaming Juice, Check them out!
Caesars Offer: Bet $1, Double Your Winnings 10 Times
