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Joey Chestnut & July 4th — 7/4/24

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest picks: Who’ll take Joey Chestnut’s throne?

By 
TheGamingJuice
WagerWire Contributor
Nick King, Lansing State Journal, USA TODAY NETWORK

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest picks: Who’ll take Joey Chestnut’s throne?

Forget the patriotic parades, Uncle Sam imitators and backyard bottle-rocket wars. For the Noise, the celebration of our country's conception on July 4 is best known for one gluttonous event that Ben Franklin and Bernie the Brewer would equally find enthralling.

The Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest.

Change is in the air at Coney Island's annual sausage-slamming summer event. Joey Chestnut, who relished a string of nine-straight titles, was recently banned by Nathan’s for signing an endorsement deal with a vegan rival. However, Chestnut and archrival Takeru Kobayashi, a six-time Nathan’s champion, are set to destroy dogs live on Netflix this September. Oh, the disgusting drama!

Though this year’s Fourth of the July tradition won’t be filled with the usual fireworks, the anticipated frankfurter fracas will crown a new Coney Island king. With a mustard-clad, Chicago-style dog in hand, I'll be watching and betting intently.

What are my plays in Thursday’s competition? Here’s a rundown of picks in the men’s and women’s competitions.

James Webb OVER 48.5 hot dogs and buns (-125, Caesars)

The gargantuan of glazed donuts may own the sweetest tooth, but the Australian has his eyes on another bite title.

Geoffrey Esper is the betting front-runner at most sportsbooks with odds ranging from +100 to -120. However, Webb is trending upward.

In his Nathan’s debut in 2022, he ravaged 41.5 hot dogs and buns. Last year, that total jumped to 47. This year, the svelte and muscular Webb has a personal goal of reaching 50.

With no Chestnut, Webb is by far the stiffest competition for Esper. Fueled by voracity and pumped with adrenaline, he should push just past the OVER. Sprinkling a little action on Webb to take the title at +200 is also mouthwatering.

Miki Sudo OVER 39.5 hot dogs and buns (+102, Caesars)

Compared to the juiced-up line on a higher total at Caesars (40.5 at -150), this is an extraordinary market value on Sudo. The nine-time Nathan’s champ has a personal best of 48.5 in the competition.

Sudo has topped the proposed number only three times in the last six years, but with expected temperatures to be tolerable in the mid-80s, she should eclipse last year’s 39.5 hot dogs and buns consumed. At plus money, it’s worth a couple of poppy seeds.