NBA Conference Semifinals: Previews & Picks
With the first round now concluded, climaxing with an electrifying Game 7 showdown where the Cleveland Cavaliers clawed back from an 18-point deficit against the youthful Orlando Magic, the stage is now set for the conference semifinals to begin!
In the opening round, six of the eight first-round matchups provided amazing storylines and narratives while also producing a tremendous amount of high-level basketball. From Anthony Edwards snatching the torch from KD in a scorching hot sweep in the desert, Luka Doncic and the Mavericks asserting their dominance in LA, Nikola Jokic denying Lebron access to the Denver mountain-top, Jalen Brunson putting an official end to 'The Process,' the Run N Gun Pacers overcoming a depleted Milwaukee team with only one of the two Antetokounmpo bros taking the floor, and the basketball gods almost repaying the Cleveland Cavaliers with a little Magic for tanking in their last regular season game, the first round was truly awesome. The Celtics also took care of business vs an injured Miami and the Thunder solidified their contender status by sweeping the floor with the Pelicans.
While this does mark the first year since the early 2010s that the second round of the playoffs excludes all of LeBron James, Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, and Paul George, NBA fans must fight the urge to be sentimental and embrace the exciting state of the league going forward. The opening three weeks of the playoffs have demonstrated that there is never a lull between eras and before you even get the chance to be sad about big names and familiar faces not being around, you're rooting just as hard for their successors. Although some may say we are destined for a Celtics/Nuggets face-off in June, game 1 of the Minnesota vs Nuggets series reminded us the NBA is as competitive as ever. Let's dig in.
Minnesota vs Denver:
The Nuggets vs Wolves got started fast, with game 1 taking place Saturday night before the official close to the first round in Cleveland on Sunday. The Nuggets came out flat, quickly letting Minnesota jump out to an 18-4 lead early in the first quarter. Although the Nuggets overcame the deficit, the early lead exemplified the Nugget's lackadaisical attitude and the Timberwolves were able to steal one in Denver, and now lead the series 1-0. Anthony Edwards was amazing and the Wolves trifecta of centers between Rudy Gobert, KAT, and Naz Ried presented the most difficult matchup to Nikola that he has seen in NBA career so far. BUT, the Nuggets are the defending champions, and have not had a truly challenging playoff matchup since they were bounced in 2022 by the Golden State Warriors that went on to win the championship, and even then the Nuggets were without their current #2 in Jamal Murray and #3 in Michael Porter Jr and were yet to complete the puzzle in trading for Aaron Gordon. Had the Nuggets been healthy that year who knows, but my point is the Nuggets have had a cakewalk through the playoffs with their last 5 matchups, including topping a completely underwhelming Miami Heat in the 2023 playoffs to win the championship last season. During the most recent series with LA, Nikola said “Winning is a lifestyle for us.” after taking a commanding 3-0 lead. What Nikola Jokic said is yet to be proven wrong when the Nuggets were healthy, and I believe dropping game 1 to Minnesota will light a fire under the wanna-be-jockey and the Nuggets will be able to return to Denver for game 5, with the series at 2-2 and from there go on to win the next two games. The Timberwolves are a great challenge for the defending champs but I believe they will be up to the test.
Prediction: Denver in 6
Cleveland vs Boston:
I'll keep this one brief, as will the Boston Celtics. The Boston Celtics might as well be playing in a different league than the Cleveland Cavaliers, this matchup will be as equally lopsided as Miami in the previous round. Boston should take care of the Celtics in four games, but factoring in that the Celtics tend to take their foot off the gas and that in 90% of the playoff matchups Spida Mitchell has been in there tends to be at least one ‘Donovan Game’ the Celtics will likely drop game 3 or 4 and then return home to Boston to take care of business and send the Cavaliers back to the land. Congratulations Cleveland, you won your first series without Lebron but not the chickens have come home to roost from tanking game 82 and now you have to go through Boston.
Prediction: Boston in 5
Dallas vs OKC:
This series stands out as the center of uncertainty in this second round. Both teams have a lot to prove but in different regards. With Luka Dončić and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading their squads' MVP-caliber campaigns, they stand as the head of the snake of each of their respective teams. Dončić is a seasoned veteran with playoff success and has been here before, and now, has the best supporting cast, along with a formidable co-star in Kyrie Irving, of his still young Mavericks and NBA career. However, the Thunder played as well as they possibly could have after game 1 of the first round but the Pelicans did not provide a true test of competitiveness for a squad with championship aspirations. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been sensational, leading his team with exceptional poise and efficiency, however, their lack of deep playoff experience compared to their Mavericks counterparts might be a telling factor in the series. I believe the Mavericks will split one of the first two games on OKC’s home floor and the true outcome of the series will be told in how OKC responds in Dallas. That being said, I think the series will go back and forth, maybe even game by game extending to an all-or-nothing game 7 in Oklahoma with the experience of Luka, Kyrie, and the Mavericks prevailing over the young Thunder that are oh-so-close, but not quite there.
Prediction: Dallas in 7
Indiana Vs New York:
I will publish a disclaimer that I am a New York Knicks fan, however, unlike the reputation of most New York fans, I have the ability to be rational and analytical and look at the situation somewhat unbiasedly.
The Knicks received a lot of criticism from the media for not intentionally losing their last game of the season. Why? Because if they won (and MIL & CLE lost, as they both did not play their starters) they would get the 2nd seed and be forced to play the winner of the 76ers and Miami Heat (Who had not lost Jimmy Butler yet). Everyone was jumping on the Knicks asking why they would want the harder matchup, this that, and the other. Anyone making those comments had not watched the New York Knicks all season and clearly did not know who head Coach Tom Thibodeau and leader Jalen Brunson were. While I do believe in the basketball gods, the Knicks likely do not, that being said, there was a zero percent chance they were going to intentionally lose that game. They were on the precipice of a 50-win season even without their second star Julius Randle for more than 30 games and without their DPOY candidate center Mitchell Robinson for 50+ games. The Knicks beat the Bulls in OT, finished the 2 seed with 50 wins, went on to play the 76ers, (without their All-NBA, All-Star, 25-10-5 6 '10 enforcer, Julius Randle), and handled business in six games after going up 3-1. Their reward for not tanking game 82, is home court in this series right now.
The head-to-head matchups this season would tell you that Indiana should win this series because they won all 3 of the games. However, there are a lot of factors at play with those matchups, actually, I'll narrow it down to one factor, OG Anunoby is yet to play Indiana as a New York Knick. Anunoby's presence dramatically shifts the dynamics for the Knicks in this series. His defensive versatility allows New York to adapt more effectively to the Pacers' high-octane offense led by Tyrese Haliburton. That said, the Pacers' fast-paced playing style and their ability to stretch the floor could pose significant challenges for the Knicks. Indiana’s pace, one of the fastest in the league, could test New York’s depth, particularly given the Knicks’ shorter rotation. With only seven true rotation players active, and the absence of Julius Randle and Bojan Bogdanović are undeniably undermanned and could struggle with fatigue as the series progresses. Despite these challenges, the Pacers are young and not playoff-experienced and just took down a very depleted Milwaukee Bucks while the Knicks just faced their toughest potential opponent besides Boston. Tyrese Haliburton said this year “the New York crowd is overrated” but unfortunately for the All-Star, he hasn't been in the garden in the springtime. Knicks in 5.
Prediction: New York in 5