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There’s nothing like the drama of the NBA Cup. I used to say that in jest, but now I actually think it’s true.
The way the teams competed in the quarterfinals showed that the players really do care about this tournament and want to play in Las Vegas. Who would’ve thought?
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With the NBA Cup down to the final four, there’s one play I’m particularly eyeing in Saturday’s semifinal matchups.
The pick — Bucks -3 vs. Hawks (-110, Caesars)
Typically, I’d shy away from betting on Milwaukee as the favorite, but a few recent developments have changed my perspective.
First of all, this Bucks team might actually be good now. Over their last five games, they rank in the top 10 in offensive efficiency and 12th in net rating. They’ve recently been working Khris Middleton back into the lineup, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard seem to finally have the chemistry they’ve been talking about developing for the last year and a half.
There’s also the revenge factor. The Hawks won 119-104 last week in Milwaukee, with the Bucks shooting 65.7% from the free-throw line and getting out-rebounded by 15. Those issues shouldn’t resurface in the matchup.
Middleton has played three games since returning from offseason ankle surgery and will have three days of rest and practice. Also, the Bucks get the Hawks in a good spot.
Situationally, Atlanta’s last game — a 108-100 road win against the Knicks — was a perfect setup for victory. The Hawks needed to rebound after a 141-111 drubbing by Denver, and they were playing in Madison Square Garden, an arena where star Trae Young always shows up. It also helped that New York had a rough night, shooting just 26.2% on 3-pointers with Jalen Brunson going 5-for-15 from the field.
After such a good spot, I don’t think Atlanta’s fortunes continue in Sin City against a Milwaukee team that’s hungry for revenge. This is also a Bucks squad that’s been vocal about wanting to reach the NBA Cup Finals after a heartbreaking semifinal loss to the Pacers last season.
With Milwaukee’s motivation/revenge factor and favorable position, I’m confident in laying the one-possession spread with Giannis and company in Vegas.
Season record: 5-2, +3.87 units
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