The NBA Rookie of the Year isn’t about hype, it’s about stacking points on ballots.

A panel of media members across the United States and Canada votes, ranking their top three rookies. First place earns 5 points, second gets 3, and third gets 1. The player with the most total points wins, not necessarily the most first place votes. Translation? Consistency, opportunity, and impact matter more than flashes.

Here’s how each of the top betting favorites can turn potential into hardware.

Cooper Flagg (-750): The Favorite With the Spotlight

Cooper Flagg doesn’t just enter the league as a rookie, he enters as the expectation.

For Flagg, the formula is simple:

Do everything.

He doesn’t need to lead all rookies in scoring. What will win voters over is his complete stat sheet:

• 16–18 points per game
• 7–9 rebounds
• 3–5 assists
• Elite defense and highlight blocks

Voters love two-way dominance. If Flagg becomes the defensive identity of his team while carrying offensive responsibility, the award is his to lose.

Path to ROY: Be the best all-around rookie, not just the highest scorer.

Kon Knueppel (+500): The Efficiency King

Kon Knueppel doesn’t need flash, he needs efficiency.

Knueppel’s path to Rookie of the Year depends on one thing:

Scoring consistency.

If he averages:

• 17+ points per game
• Shoots 40%+ from three
• Plays heavy minutes

He becomes impossible to ignore.

Voters reward rookies who produce nightly, especially scorers who become reliable offensive options early.

Path to ROY: Become the most dependable rookie scorer.

VJ Edgecombe (+7500): The Explosive Dark Horse

VJ Edgecombe has something voters remember:

Highlight moments.

His athleticism gives him a real chance, if opportunity meets production.

For Edgecombe to win, he needs:

• Starter-level minutes
• Fast-paced system
• 15+ points per game
• Big highlight plays

Rookie of the Year narratives are built on moments. Posters, game-winners, and breakout performances build momentum.

Path to ROY: Turn athletic flashes into nightly production.

Derik Queen (+50000): The Statistical Monster Path

Derik Queen has a clear blueprint:

Dominate inside.

Big men can win Rookie of the Year if they control the paint.

If Queen averages:

• 14+ points
• 10+ rebounds
• Efficient scoring

He enters the conversation immediately.

Rebounding travels. Physical dominance earns respect.

Path to ROY: Become the rookie double-double machine.

Cedric Coward (+50000): The Opportunity Sleeper

Cedric Coward represents the biggest unknown, and sometimes, that’s dangerous.

Rookie of the Year races change fast when unexpected players get opportunity.

If Coward earns:

• Heavy minutes
• Starter role
• 15+ points

He could surprise everyone.

Voters reward production, not draft position.

Path to ROY: Turn opportunity into unexpected production.

What Actually Wins Rookie of the Year

History shows Rookie of the Year winners usually check at least two of these boxes:

• High scoring average
• Major role on their team
• Consistent minutes
• Strong narrative
• Team relevance

The award isn’t just about talent.

It’s about visibility, consistency, and impact.

Prediction: The Reality of the Race

Right now, this is Cooper Flagg’s award to lose.

But every season, one rookie changes the story.

Because Rookie of the Year isn’t won on draft night.

It’s won from October to April.