Timberwolves keys to victory

Ball control: The one time Minnesota was fairly thoroughly beaten by Oklahoma City this season, on New Year’s Eve in Oklahoma City Minnesota turned the ball over 24 times, which led to 31 Thunder points.

Timberwolves coach Chris Finch has repeatedly harped on the importance of not turning the ball over against the Thunder, something Minnesota managed well in the other three matchups during the season. Minnesota won two of those contests.

Oklahoma City led the NBA with the lowest turnover percentage (11.9%) and the highest opponent turnover percentage (16.9%).

During the regular season, the Thunder scored 18.1% of their points off turnovers, an NBA high. That number has spiked to north of 20% in the postseason.

Eight Denver turnovers in the second quarter Sunday sparked the start of the Thunder run that clinched that series.

Minnesota’s defense could cause havoc for Oklahoma City in the half court, but the Wolves will have to limit their giveaways to keep the Thunder from capitalizing in easy transition.

Win the 3-point battle: Minnesota was fifth this season in 3-point makes (15.0). The Thunder were sixth. With the gravity possessed by each team’s star player Anthony Edwards for Minnesota and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for Oklahoma City . The role players for both teams figure to have numerous decent looks from the perimeter.

Those are likely the best scoring chances either side will generate in the halfcourt. Both teams have lineups flush with guys who can knock down the triple. But both teams have shown in the postseason that those “others” can run hot and cold from distance.

Whether it’s a night where Lu Dort makes four 3-pointers or DiVincenzo could determine a contest.

Gobert games: Gobert’s impact has fluctuated for Minnesota throughout the postseason. Minnesota’s defense and rebounding is unquestionably better when the center is on the floor.

But there have been times where the opponent’s ability to disregard Gobert without Minnesota making the defense pay with easy looks for the center inside has stalled out Minnesota’s offense.

One way to beat Oklahoma City is on the glass. The easiest way for the Wolves to do that is with Gobert on the floor. But only if Minnesota can maintain some semblance of offense in the process.

Limit Shai: Gilgeous-Alexander is the likely MVP this season. But teams this postseason have found the best way to beat the Thunder is to force the ball out of Gilgeous-Alexander’s hands.

That’s what Minnesota did in its wild, 25-point fourth quarter rally to beat the Thunder in February.

Minnesota trapped the star guard out of a zone, and Gilgeous-Alexander’s teammates failed to make outside shots. If you can limit Gilgeous-Alexander’s offensive output, Oklahoma City struggles to put up enough points to put you away.

Prediction

Minnesota in 7. The Timberwolves have been to this point, while this edition of the Thunder are making their first appearance on this stage.

It’s easier to trust Minnesota’s experience and ability to perform at a consistent level around its superstar at this juncture.

Written by Drew Lee | May 20, 2025

Wolves, Thunder Set for Defensive Duel in the West The Western Conference Finals

are shaping up to be a defensive slugfest. Minnesota and Oklahoma City boast two of the NBA's stingiest playoff defenses ranking second and fourth, respectively.

These teams don’t just defend, they grind, and with three of their four regular-season matchups decided by eight points or fewer, expect a tightly contested series. Star power will be on display, but shot selection and efficiency may tip the scales.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been solid overall (47.8%) but shaky from deep (29.3%), while Anthony Edwards has flashed brilliance but still sits at 44.5% shooting. Role players could be the X-factor, Naz Reid has been quiet lately but remains a wild card, especially against OKC’s undersized frontcourt.

Minnesota enters as an underdog again, but don’t count out their toughness and defensive identity.

Best Bets:

Timberwolves +7.5 (-110) , Defensive dogs don’t go quietly.

Naz Reid 10+ points (-162), Watch for a breakout game in the right matchup.

Parlay: +168 ,Tie it together for solid value.