Before the main course that is the NCAA Tournament, arguably the best single betting event of the year, we get a delicious appetizer all week long with Conference tournament play. All over the country, at all hours of the day, conference rivals battle it out for seeding and automatic bids. From top dogs in the power 5, to smaller programs looking for a chance at a Cinderella run, this week is a sports bettors paradise.
While a few tickets to the big dance have already been punched, the bigger tournaments get going today, and are highlighted as usual by an early week West Coast Conference Final matchup between Gonzaga and St Mary’s. These two perennial conference finalists finished the regular season tied at the top and split their two regular season affairs. Tonight should be a barnburner, with Gonzaga a small favorite out in Vegas, and i’m rolling with the Zags to take home another conference title.
The bottom of the barrel in the ACC plays today, while the top 4 seeds wait with byes. Defending NCAA runner-up UNC likely needs to rip off a title just to make the tournament, and while they have the same team that when on a finals run a year ago, they have been a complete enigma and have shown no signs of life all year. Their rivals down Tobacco Road weren’t able to win the regular season either, that honor was split between Miami and Virginia, who have been the class of a down conference all year. I like the guard play and experience of the Hurricanes to win it all in Greensboro, and go into the dance with a high seed.
In an off year over on the Atlantic Coast, the Big 12 has emerged as the top conference in the nation. The last place team in the conference, Oklahoma, absolutely throttled #1 ranked Alabama in non-conference play, proving how dangerous this league is from top to bottom. Near the bottom sits West Virginia, who without a magical run will likely receive an NIT bid, yet I find them to be a team more than capable of making a run in March. Bob Huggins will have his work cut out for him, with likely #1 overall seed Kansas in their path, who just got trounced on the road by another conference contender from Austin. Baylor has reached a level of consistency generally unmatched by non-blue bloods, and while they were trending for a while, Iowa State knocked them off at home, to remind us of the Cyclones own ability. KSU and TCU have replicated their gridiron success and been in the Top 25 rankings all year, and both have the studs to earn the auto bid that comes with winning this event in Kansas City. I have my eyes on the Mountaineers as a long shot, but ultimately I find Kansas to be too tough to get knocked off. With a conference tournament win, the Jayhawks will likely back up their National title with the #1 overall seed next week.
The only conference that can claim to be able to give the Big 12 a run for its money will play its tournament starting tomorrow in the basketball haven that is Chicago. While I find the conference highly overrated, Purdue and 7 4’ Zack Edey will need to be reckoned with in March, along with a red-hot Indiana Hoosiers team with a couple of future NBA players on its roster. Tom Izzo and Michigan State are the only program from this league to have won a National Title this Millennium, and they look to be peaking at the right time this year also. Maryland has had a nice year in Kevin Willards first with the program, and Iowa has proven they are never out of a game with their ability to shoot the ball. Illinois does have some talent, but the other in-state team that finished with the second best record in league play is Northwestern, who is built to be a problem in tournament play. While Purdue sits as the odds on favorite, I am eyeing the team that handles them twice already this season. The Hoosiers have a big that can bang with Edey in the post, and they have a guard that can assert his dominance over those of the Boilermakers. I think we are getting great value at +440 on FanDuel, with Indiana who has proven they have what it takes all season long. Their comeback win over Michigan in the regular season finale had to be a confidence booster, and should set up a run at a league title.
Maybe it is an East Coast bias, but my favorite conference all year has been the Big East. While your fathers and grandfathers Big East ceases to exist, this version of the conference is almost as competitive and quite entertaining. Add in the fact this tournament takes place at the World's Most Famous Arena, and it becomes a must watch. With Jay Wright in the broadcast booth, Villanova has taken a massive step backwards, despite having the talent to make a run here. Because it took them time to get healthy, the Cats will need to win the whole thing just to get into the tournament they have become accustomed to going deep in. With Justin Moore and Eric Dixon on the court, they are not to be counted out yet. Nova was just trounced by Uconn, who has emerged this year behind some lottery talent and strong play from its bigs. Danny Hurley’s Huskies have been up and down this year, emerging as the #2 team in the land before falling all the way out of the top 20, but have caught fire once again at the right time. They enter this tournament as the betting favorite. The leagues best regular season team was Marquette, led by a coach who has been there before in Shaka Smart. The Golden Eagles have their best roster since D-Wade was in town, and a legit chance to reach a final four after leaving NYC. Not to be taken lightly is Doug Mcdermott and Creighton, who made the second weekend a year ago, and are running it back with a better all-around team this year. I really like this team and their guards to play deep into March - and have a realistic shot at winning the conference crown. Last years conference tournament darlings play out of Providence, RI, where Ed Cooley’s bunch has cooled off immensely down the stretch. That said, Hopkins and the Friars have plenty of talent to make a run at this thing. They will need to rely on the three point shooting of Bynum and Locke, with the offensive rebounding of Croswell if they want to make more noise in conference play. Alas, the forgotten Xavier Musketeers who have played consistent great basketball all season long. This is a talented team that can score with anyone, and make a deep tournament run. While I am tempted to lock them in at +500 to cut the nets down at MSG, it is hard to pick against the Huskies. The favorites at +210 have looked close to unbeatable down the stretch, and I think they remain that way this week.
Out West, I like Arizona with UCLA suffering a brutal loss to the all important Jaylen Clark in the season finale. I think that will be a tough one to overcome for the Bruins, who will be forced to rely too heavily on Jaime Jaquez and Tiger Campbell, although they are both extremely capable. A likely one seed in the tournament, Mick Cronin will need to pull out all the stops without their best defensive player and 3 point shooter. Tommy Lloyd and the Wildcats have health on their side, but are coming off an extremely disappointing NCAA tournament last year. We’ll see if they can come back stronger, and a conference title at +185 will help their seeding going in.
Finally, the SEC has turned into a loaded league this year, despite Kentucky being below its usual standard, and Florida being down in the dumps. Off court issues aside, Bama is one of the three best teams in the country, and feature a top 10 pick (legal troubles aside) in Brandon Miller. They were just knocked off by an exciting Texas A&M team, led by Buzz Williams who gets his guys consistently fired up for tournament action. Tennessee has been a top 10 team all year, although Rick Barnes lost one of his starting guards down the stretch run. That was an issue against Auburn and Bruce Pearl, who has the confidence in his guard play to be dangerous all month. The biggest disappointment to me in the whole country this year has been Arkansas, who has struggled to string any wins together all year despite immense talent advantages. Musselman's group plays an erratic brand of basketball that can either lead to a surprising run or a first round flameout. And while Kentucky is not a national title contender, they still have the talent to make a run at a conference title. They also are capable of losing to Vanderbilt at home, which we witnessed just a week ago. With the exception of Alabama, this field is wide open. If someone can get hot and knock off the Tide, which is clearly a big if, then I love the value created with Texas A&M at +600. Even if it is them that needs to take out the favorites, they just did it a week ago, and have the athleticism and energy to do it again. I’ll take Buzz and the Aggies.
So there you have it for conference tournament week. A sports bettors paradise, with games kicking off at 8:30 AM pacific, and going deep into the night. These are the tournaments I am looking at, and watching them will undoubtedly give you no better shot at getting your bracket through the opening weekend. Enjoy the action!
