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The Madness is HERE! A certifiable college hoops nut, The Gaming Juice’s Brad Evans gives his NCAA Tournament region-by-region thoughts, discussing his favorite picks to reach San Antonio and what under-the-radar squad could wear a glass slipper.
The pick — St. John's to reach the Final Four (+600, FanDuel)
Rick Pitino is the shiniest gem. He’s also the greatest living basketball mind on the planet.
After his St. John’s squad won the Big East Tournament in spectacular fashion over Creighton and cut down the nets at Madison Square Garden, the coaching marvel joined the FOX postgame show and was asked how he was going to celebrate. He responded with an instant classic answer.
“Uh, I’m gonna drink a quart of Jameson’s.”
Legend.
For those with betting and bracket interests, Pitino’s Johnnies are worth a shot or three of Irish whiskey. They have the profile of a team destined for San Antonio.
On offense, the Kings of Queens don’t exactly sport a bejeweled crown.
A faster version of Kelvin Sampson’s Houston Cougars, the Red Storm may not be the sexiest advanced metrics squad around. Their top-20 standing in effective field goal percentage defense is exciting, but they aren’t without flaws as evidenced by their rankings of No. 249 in effective field goal percentage offense, No. 339 in 3-point percentage offense and No. 283 in free-throw rate.
St. John’s makes up for its offensive shortcomings in other areas.
First, its uninterrupted on-ball defense wreaks havoc. Over the last 30 days, opponents have committed turnovers on 22.3% of possessions, the seventh-highest rate in the country.
Equally eye-opening is the Red Storm’s ability to grab off-the-mark caroms with unmitigated zeal. In their last nine games, they have secured a second chance on 36.7% of their possessions, which ranks top-25 nationally. On the glass, Zuby Ejiofor has a motor that just doesn’t quit. Overall, the on-the-attack efforts and mentality of St. John’s are tireless.
Chris Mullin U doesn’t typically burn the nets, but it's defense and blasting of the boards always keep it in games. All four St. John’s losses this season have been by three points or fewer.
Yes, this pool chaser picked Florida in his “gut” NCAA Tournament bracket, but with the Gators -110 to take the wild, wild West, there’s no value. The Red Storm, however, are +600 to blaze a trail to Texas.
Bet on Pitino.
CINDERELLA SPECIAL (+10 seed that could advance two or more lines)
The pick — No. 12 Colorado State to reach the Sweet 16 (+340)
Standing atop the eFG% offense standings over the last 30 days according to BartTorvik, CSU is hotter than the damn sun. In its last 10 games, it’s shooting an insane 56.6% from 2-point range and 47.4% from 3. And it’s not like the Rams play it conservatively. Over 40% of their jacks have come from distance.
With Nique Clifford — a verifiable NBA prospect scoring 25.3 points per game in his last six contests — and the efficient offensive efforts of Kyan Evans, Jalen Lake and Jaylen Crocker-Johnson, the Rams are smoking. Throw in their improved efforts on defense and glass-sealing efforts, and they will be quite dangerous.
Memphis, a vulnerable and over-seeded No. 5, is a tremendous opening-round draw for Colorado State. A predictable 12-over-5 upset is entirely buyable.
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