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This time each year, various sportsbooks begin to roll out exotic futures tied to college basketball. The Gaming Juice’s junior circuit junkie, Brad Evans, will occasionally unearth bets he believes present excellent value.
The pick — Nebraska to MAKE the NCAA Tournament (+110, DraftKings)
Other than straight-up wins, seasoned gamblers are always striving to lock in closing line value.
CLV, for those who speak acronyms, is the concept when a bettor grabs a line at a specific number or juice which then closes pregame at much lower valuation. For those who bombed at basic reading comprehension, here’s an example: If you buy a ticket on Illinois at +150 to make the NCAA Tournament and that same market closes at -200, that's a significant CLV.
Comprende?
The aforementioned Nebraska prop at DraftKings is terribly mispriced. As it stands, Fred Hoiberg’s team has done plenty to strap on its Dancing shoes.
Yes, the Cornhuskers are a mediocre No. 54 in the NET, but understand why that measurement exists. It’s hardly a be-all-end-all metric. It replaced the antiquated RPI seven years ago as the Selection Committee’s primary sorting tool when scrubbing, setting and vetting the field.
[ Bracket Big Board: Brad Evans' latest NCAA Tournament projections ]
Other analytics paint a rosier picture. For instance, Brice Williams and company are No. 26 in overall strength of schedule, 5-6 in true road games and 5-9 against Quadrant 1 competition. That’s strong.
New to the committee’s process this year, wins above bubble by Nebraska (50) also rate above true Bubbleville residents Indiana (51), Cincinnati (55), Ohio State (57), Xavier (58) and Texas (60). And that’s just one small part of the profile.
What’s most encouraging for the ‘Huskers is who they face on the immediate horizon. Undoubtedly, their matchup at Ohio State next Tuesday is bubbly, but with home contests against Minnesota on Saturday and against Iowa on March 9, they should finish 2-1. BartTorvik gives Nebraska a 70% or greater win probability against the Gophers and Hawkeyes.
If the Cornhuskers emerge victorious three more times, they’ll break out the running man for only the ninth time in school history. Right now, the Bracket Big Board has them comfortably slotted as the highest No. 10 seed. The Bracket Matrix aggregate has them on the No. 10 line.
Take advantage of the plus money, gamer. Candidly, the market above should be in the -180 to -220 range.
Holy potential CLV!
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