New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers (8:15 p.m. PT, ABC, ESPN, ESPN2)
Prime-time NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you.
New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers (8:15 p.m. PT, ABC, ESPN, ESPN2)
Prop Play: Christian McCaffrey UNDER 16.5 rushing attempts (-110, BetMGM)
Soft-tissue issues remain undefeated. Dealing with an annoying calf/achilles flare-up for the past month, the CMC Football Factory isn’t exactly operating at full capacity.
Glitches on the conveyor belt could have management exercising caution in Monday’s opener, especially against New York’s projected stingy D. Largely due to a stellar linebacker corps, Robert Saleh’s group of body wrappers should finish well inside the top 10 in EPA per play defense this season.
San Francisco’s sketchy offensive line — ESPN’s Mike Clay ranked it 20th entering 2024 — could struggle creating holes. Yes, McCaffrey was all-world last year when he ranked in the top six in YAC per attempt (3.42) and total missed tackles forced (60). He also was a workhorse, topping 17 rushing attempts in nine of 16 regular-season contests. However, the extended layoff and a difficult MNF matchup could mean Jordan Mason supplants him more than most anticipate.
Prop season record: 2-1, +0.90 units
SGP: Game UNDER 50.5, Tyler Conklin 3+ receptions, Breece Hall 2+ receptions (+130, Caesars)
Game UNDER 50.5 points. Don’t expect a shootout at the OK Corral, folks. Both the Jets and Niners should run out top-10 EPA defenses this year. Whether up front or in the backfield, the rosters are loaded with proven talent and at least decent depth. Also, given the teams’ strong ground approaches, the clock should tick away at a brisk pace. In what could be a battle of field-goal kickers, the alt UNDER 50.5 shouldn’t overwork sweat glands.
Tyler Conklin 3+ receptions. Similar to Jermichael Finley, Jimmy Graham and Robert Tonyan during Aaron Rodgers’ Green Bay days, Conklin could emerge as a tight end weapon of choice. Last season in a dysfunctional Jets offense, he averaged a healthy 10.2 yards per catch and finished No. 9 in total air yards. Of course, many of those were unrealized as evidenced by his TE30 standing in catchable target rate, but even a long-in-the-tooth Rodgers can make Conklin viable. In total, 14 tight ends hauled in at least three passes against San Francisco last year. To start the new season, Conklin catches a minimum of three.
Breece Hall 2+ receptions. Last year, the Niners were gashed in short-field coverage, surrendering 90 receptions to RBs in the regular season. In all, 26 running backs snagged at least two passes against them. Hall was busy flaring out of the backfield last season. In 17 games, he ran 20.0 routes per game, grabbed 76 total receptions (4.5 per game) and reeled in 80.0% of his intended looks. Against an aggressive San Francisco pass rush, Rodgers dumps off to Hall at least a couple times.
SGP season record: 0-3, -3.00 units
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