Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens
Ravens -9.5 Splits (52% money/55% bets on TEXANS)
Total 43.5 Splits (70% money/44% bets on UNDER)
I saw one promo pushing Ravens -9.5 (ESPN). Anytime I see a promo I look the other way. This generally means that a sportsbook is looking to take action on a particular side. In this case, they want Ravens money. -9.5 and 43.5 has held steady for most of the week. Books are reluctant to go to 10 for now. If it stays under 10 through kickoff, it further says the liability is on the Texans. The total has been bet down from the opener of 46. Prop angles I uncovered: Nico Collins receiving yards and receptions. He is pretty much the main and only target for the Texans. Collins had 80 yards receiving in week 1 which is slightly over the 78.5 number that is posted. CJ Stroud has only thrown an interception in 3 games this year yet for him to NOT throw one is +130. Logic tells you thats worth a stab, but are books baiting us? Or is the Ravens D perceived that good that people just think he will throw an INT?
Recap on some bet ideas to consider and what the market says:
Texans +9.5
Under 43.5
Nico Collins yds
CJ Stroun No INT
Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers
49ers -9.5 or -10 Splits (59% money/ 58% bets)
Total 50.5 or 51 Splits (83% money/74% bets on OVER)
This line seems like it is going to be -10 across the board today. It’s on the move with 49ers and over money. The 49ers are the best power rated team in the NFL for a reason. This could easily be a blow out as the 49ers have the rest advantage. Getting in the head of an average bettor, they just saw the Packers blowout the Cowboys last week. I think a lot of them are thinking “give me give me” the 10 points. The splits and the line move favor my thinking that this should be a higher scoring game. The prop angle I see based on what the spread and total is telling us (a 30-20ish San Fran win) a heavy dose of McCaffery (think over rushing yards, attempts, anytime TD, whatever your flavor is) and Jordan Love passing.
Recap on some bet ideas to consider and what the market says: