NFL Draft QB prop bets: Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy, Michael Penix
Author: Brad Evans
For three days, the NFL Draft provides refreshment for football-crazed gamers desperately yearning for any sort of pigskin action. (Apologies to The Rock. The UFL simply doesn't satisfy hunger.)
Thursday’s first round will be filled with the usual pomp and circumstance. Stylish suits, neck-draped flashy bling, main-stage struts, Roger Goodell bro hugs and lifelong dreams realized. With events unfolding in Detroit, it’s only fitting the catchy tune that sparked the Motown era — Barrett Strong’s “Money (That’s What I Want)” — blares on repeat in the background.
Most enticingly for savvy gamers, it’s an opportunity to grab the action by the Benjamins.
Yes, many draft insiders have already tabbed this year’s exercise as one of the most unpredictable in recent memory. Still, there are crafty ways to navigate the uncertainty in the betting markets.
How is this seasoned, and often wrong, gambler approaching them? Below are three quarterback-centric props I’m eyeing. And, no, Caleb Williams to go No. 1 overall to Chicago at -10000 odds isn’t stupidly one of them.
Drake Maye drafted No. 2 overall (+125, DraftKings)
Where there’s smoke there’s fire.
Betting markets have recently — and oddly — cooled on Jayden Daniels landing with the Commanders at numero dos. It’s unlikely QB-needy Washington is going to trade out of its spot, but it is possible the purposely leaked Daniels hype was deployed as some sort of smokescreen to drive trade interest.
Though the NFL Mock Draft Database has Maye going to New England at No. 3, a little social media sleuthing unearths several differing opinions from reputable sources. This late in the game, it’s advisable to believe nothing, but sprinkling on Maye at +125 is a sage move.
J.J. McCarthy OVER 5.5 overall pick (+120, DraftKings)
Freshly inked former Michigan skipper Jim Harbaugh will try to convince you otherwise, but the steam around McCarthy having his name called among the top five could be nothing but bluster. Despite his plus athleticism, McCarthy had his pass attempts limited in college for a reason.
Yes, Michigan’s identity was steeped in defense and ball control. And it’s true McCarthy finished QB5 among Division I quarterbacks in adjusted completion percentage. However, his 9.4 aDOT (No. 81 among QBs) suggests high-percentage throws were carefully called to maximize efficiency, and his 45 combined attempts against Alabama and Washington in the College Football Playoff raised questions. Yes, game script played a factor against the Huskies, but the conservatism was puzzling.
Mel Kiper believes a team will move up to draft McCarthy. It’s also possible he slips outside the top 10, maybe to Minnesota at No. 11. That’s the most popular place of employment, according to the NFL Mock Draft Database.
Michael Penix drafted in Round 1 (-180, FanDuel)
The value on the OVER 4.5 first-round QBs evaporated long ago. That offering is -250 at most houses — a strong “no thanks” — but if you’re still interested in playing the market, pivot to Penix at a slightly more appealing price.
If the Vikings hold out for a quarterback, the former Washington Huskies slinger could land in Minnesota as its second first-round selection at No. 23 overall. It’s also possible other QB-desiring organizations trade up into the first round to secure Penix’s services.
Again, the moving parts could create a domino effect in multiple areas, but considering how coveted potential franchise QBs are, Penix is sure to have multiple suitors. Yes, he has some footwork/windup concerns. However, his Howitzer arm and dual-threat capability could transform him into an instant top-15 NFL passer.
Source: The Gaming Juice
