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Prime-time NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you.
Prop play — Xavier Worthy OVER 35.5 receiving yards (-113, FanDuel)
DMX anthem “X Gon’ Give It To Ya” thumped in fantasy manager minds when they enthusiastically shouted out Worthy’s name on draft day. Sure, all rookies take their lumps, but being entrenched in a ripe situation with a generational quarterback in his prime and blessed with 4.21-second 40-yard speed, the first-round pick seemed to have an ideal formula for statistical success.
Then the regular season began.
Worthy has had his moments, but they’ve been infrequent. Only three times in seven games has the Chiefs wideout scored 12 fantasy points or more — the same number of times he’s eclipsed 36 receiving yards in a game.
Most unpredictably, Patrick Mahomes looks like a passer from the bygone leather helmet days. Even though he ranks No. 11 in deep-ball completion percentage and No. 17 in overall adjusted completion percentage, the Kansas City quarterback averages 5.8 air yards per attempt, which is nearly dead last (QB37) among qualifying starters.
When did Mr. State Farm morph into a noodle-armed Mitch Trubisky?
As a result, Worthy not surprisingly hasn’t reached peak potential. He’s a boring No. 54 in aDOT (10.8), No. 19 in unrealized air yards and No. 79 in yards per target (6.4). Again, given his Olympic sprinter-like speed, it’s puzzling the former Longhorn and Mahomes haven’t hooked up on more explosive pass plays.
That could change Monday at Arrowhead Stadium.
The Buccaneers have allowed the NFL’s third-most air yards and the seventh-most wide receiver yards. In total, a dozen WRs have tallied 36 or more yards against them. Also, Worthy’s primary projected assignment — fellow rookie Tyrek Funderburk — has yielded a staggering 91.7 catch percentage and 156.9 passer rating on 97 coverage snaps.
X is gonna rock. X is gonna roll.
Prop season record: 12-13 -1.90 units
SGP play — Baker Mayfield OVER 5.5 rushing yards, Cade Otton 40+ receiving yards, Kareem Hunt anytime touchdown (+146, DraftKings)
Baker Mayfield OVER 5.5 rushing yards. Mayfield is out there thinking he’s some sort of Lamar Jackson. That thought has often crossed this bettor's mind whenever the sometimes-awkward QB sprints out of the pocket. An unquestionable opportunistic runner, Mayfield has called his number 3.6 times per game this year, averaging a shocking 21.1 yards per game. Overall, he’s run for at least 10 yards in seven of his eight games. The Chiefs defense, which is No. 3 in pocket pressure rate at 29.3%, is an aggressive unit that’s sure to flush Mayfield a time or three. In total, five QBs have dashed for six yards or more against K.C. Run overly confident, Baker.
Cade Otton 40+ receiving yards. Here’s a stunning stat that will jolt you: Fantasy tight ends are performing 39.3% above the league average against the Chiefs. With Chris Godwin and Mike Evans sidelined, Otton, who blew up for a 9-81-2 line last week against Atlanta and has lured 20 combined targets in his past two games, is sure to be a flavor of choice. He’s averaged 32.6 routes per game (TE2), totaled the ninth-most yards after the catch at his position (167) and topped 40 receiving yards in five of his last six games. Given Otton’s rising role and K.C.’s generosity to pass-catching TEs — the Chiefs have given up the third-most yards to the position and five 40-yard-plus performances — the Buccaneers tight end should cash with relative ease.
Kareem Hunt anytime touchdown. For the Hunt-er gatherers in attendance who plucked the resurgent running back off waivers weeks ago, the gravy train has steadily chugged — and most often into the end zone. Ranking No. 17 in total red-zone touches (21), Hunt has crossed the chalk in three straight games. Even with Vita Vea plugging holes in the trenches, Tampa Bay is a middling run defense, ranking No. 18 in EPA rush D. The Bucs also have given up seven total touchdowns and 5.03 yards per carry to rushers. Shockingly, Kansas City checks in at No. 26 in TD-only red-zone scoring percentage. However, due to Hunt’s goal-line nose, his standing should steadily climb. Bank on him splashing six.
SGP season record: 9-16, -4.19 units