Heading into the final weekend of the NFL regular season, there are currently three teams still alive in the race to secure the final playoff seed in the AFC: the New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Tennessee Titans still have a chance to take the 4th seed from the Jacksonville Jaguars by winning their matchup Saturday and clinching the AFC South, however, they have already been eliminated from the Wild Card race.
While the playoff-clinching scenarios are a bit more clear-cut in the NFC, things were complicated for the AFC in the aftermath of the scary Damar Hamlin incident that occurred during the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals matchup on Monday Night Football.
The play was suspended during the game after Hamlin collapsed on the field, and the NFL announced that the two teams would not be playing each other this week in the resulting aftermath. Their statement did not, however, provide any clarity as to how the outcome of that game would be decided moving forward.
Thankfully, multiple reports began emerging earlier today stating that Damar Hamlin is showing extremely promising signs of recovery after he had made steady improvements in recent days.
While it is impossible to predict how the seeding in the AFC will shake out until a further announcement is made on the Bengals/Bills game, I will do my best to break down the three teams that are still in the race to secure the final playoff spot, and give you my pick for who will sneak into the NFL Playoffs.
WagerWire
New England Patriots (8–8)
The New England Patriots control their playoff destiny this weekend after narrowly escaping Week 17 with a 22–20 win over the Miami Dolphins, resulting in the Patriots leaping over them into the seventh seed in the process.
The Patriots have the simplest scenario to make the playoffs of the three teams battling for the final spot: win and they’re in. While that might sound simple enough, it will be no easy task as they will have to travel to Buffalo and defeat the Bills.
Those two teams already met earlier in the season, and the Bills emerged from Foxboro with a 24–10 road victory over the Patriots.
New England struggled to move the ball effectively in that matchup and their only touchdown of the game was courtesy of a long Marcus Jones reception (Jones is a cornerback normally, but he was playing wide receiver on the possession).
With so much uncertainty still surrounding the health and situation of Damar Hamlin after the horrific events of last night, it’s hard to predict which version of the Bills will show up on Sunday.
However, I think Josh Allen and company will be highly motivated to make sure they don’t potentially see the Patriots again the following week in the opening round of the playoffs, and they should comfortably get past New England on Sunday in Buffalo.
Miami Dolphins (8–8)
After a promising 8–3 start to the regular season, the Miami Dolphins have absolutely fallen off a cliff. Over the past month and change, they’ve lost their past five games and have fallen all the way out of the playoff picture after previously being tied for the best record in the AFC.
They will now have to not only beat the New York Jets on Sunday, but they will now need some help from the Buffalo Bills as well if they still hope to make the postseason.
The season has been an absolute nightmare for the Dolphins at the quarterback position, with starter Tua Tagovailoa suffering three separate concussion-like injuries in a span of roughly 14 weeks, the most recent coming on Christmas Day in a loss to the Green Bay Packers.
With Tagovailoa likely out for Week 18 and backup Teddy Bridgewater also getting injured this past weekend in the Dolphins' loss to the Patriots, it looks increasingly likely that third-string rookie Skylar Thompson will be getting the start against the Jets.
Ironically, Thompson was also the team’s starter against New York in their first meeting this season, which the Jets comfortably won 40–17 at MetLife Stadium. The Dolphins are 0–3 this season in games that have seen Skylar Thompson attempt ten or more passes.
With so many key players banged up for Miami, it will be a tough task to ask a third-string rookie to save their season against a very talented Jets’ secondary, one of the few units in the league capable of somewhat containing Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
While it pains me to say it as a fan of the Dolphins, there is a pretty decent chance that Miami’s offense will struggle to put up points against the Jets and that New York will likely be able to squeak out a narrow win in Miami.
Pittsburgh Steelers (8–8)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have made a strong late-season push to enter the playoff conversation, but they will need a lot of help this weekend to actually finish their run with a postseason berth.
Not only will the Steelers need to beat the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, they will also need the Patriots and Dolphins to lose in their respective games as well if they hope to make the playoffs.
Pittsburgh has made an impressive run after starting the season 3–7 by winning five of their past six games to reach the .500 mark once again. Their only loss during this stretch was by two points against the Baltimore Ravens.
Since regaining several key players from early-season injuries, the Steelers have been particularly good on the defensive side of the ball. They have surrendered 17 or fewer points to their opponents in each of their last six games.
The Browns, meanwhile, have struggled to find their footing this season while they have worked to acclimate DeShaun Watson into the offense during the middle of the year.
They were officially eliminated from playoff contention last week, so they will be playing for pride and a chance to end the season of one of their biggest division rivals.
If the Steelers can keep a lid on Cleveland’s ground game in this one, I think they will be able to put together enough offense to pick up the win here over the Browns in a low-scoring game.
Final Verdict
With things currently as they stand, I think the Pittsburgh Steelers have the best chance to lock up the seventh seed in the AFC in Week 18.
If the Bills play their starters, they should be able to comfortably beat New England. And while Miami has gone an impressive 5–2 at Hard Rock Stadium this season, the Dolphins will be hard-pressed to win against the Jets given all of their current injury woes.
That means the Pittsburgh Steelers would have a chance to complete a shocking late-season run and sneak into the postseason if they are able to get things done against the Browns.