Thursday August 10th

Houston Texans (0-0) @ New England Patriots

Texans -3.5 or -4.5

Total 36.5 - 38

The Texans come in with a new football coach once again this year.  New head coaches tend to do well in the preseason as they are trying to motivate their team.  Week 1 especially.  I think there is some value on the Texans at -3.5.  One book is -4.5.  I may take Houston at -3.5 and New England at +4.5.  The main angle here is motivation.  The total is all over the place here.  You can get an under 38 and an over 36.5.  The market seems like it is betting under.  78% of the money and 72% of bets are on the under.  Keep in mind totals went 13-3 last year in week 1 of preseason.

Minnesota Vikings (0-0) @ Seattle Seahawks (0-0)

Seahawks -4.5

Total 35 - 36.5

The Vikings went 0-3 under 2nd year head coach, Kevin O’Connell, but so did Pete Carroll.  The market is on Seattle pushing this from -2.5 to -4.5.  The value is gone in my opinion on Seattle.  The market also seems to be betting the over with 70% of the money and 64% of bets to the over.  The total opened at 34.5 and has risen any where from 35 to 36.5

Friday

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) @ Tampa Bay Bucs (0-0)

Steelers -2.5

Total 39-39.5

I was going to save this for Friday’s preview but the line has jumped a good bit since I placed by bets on Pittsburgh +1 and +100 on moneyline.  Steelers HC, Tomlin, tends to play to win in the preseason.  The market is backing them with this steam.  2nd year coach Todd Bowles went 0-3 last year in preseason.  1 and 2 are key numbers in the preseason.  I think there is still some value on Pittsburgh moneyline -145.

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