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During the NFL season, I will constantly scour the sportsbooks to find market inefficiencies tied to various player props. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you.
Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 equals 1.15 units wagered.
1. George Pickens OVER 28.5 yards longest catch vs. Browns (-110, BetMGM)
Russell’s Wilson’s moon balls are magical. The long-arcing parabolic throws, which seemingly touch the thermosphere, hang suspended for an eternity, often finding the outstretched hands of Pickens with remarkable precision. It really is a match made in heaven. Eleven times this season, the Steelers WR1 has caught passes of 29 or more yards. In fact, he grabbed one in Pittsburgh’s last game, a snowy one, against the Browns in Week 12. Again set to draw Martin Emerson Jr. in coverage, another explosive connection is likely. The Cleveland cornerback has allowed the 17th-most yards, a 110.3 passer rating and 13.1 yards per reception to his assignments. Pickens, who ranks top-three in total air yards and deep-ball targets (25), should bend and contort his lanky frame and haul in another celestial Wilson chuck.
BetAlytics grade: B-
2. Caleb Williams OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns at 49ers (+160, BetMGM)
Yes Chef, you’re reading that line correctly. The Bear has a significant plus number next to a prop that’s entirely doable. The visiting rookie quarterback should slice and dice a hurting San Francisco defense. Down several key players, the 49ers are No. 27 in pass EPA defense over the last five weeks. During that stretch, three passers have twirled at least a pair of touchdowns against them. Williams is likely the next. Shane Waldron’s overdue axing as offensive coordinator two weeks ago has unleashed Williams. In his last two games, the No. 1 pick has tossed a combined five TDs. Ranking No. 2 in total air yards and No. 13 in red-zone attempts overall, Williams has spun a pair of scores in five contests. In a highly winnable game that will presumably end in disaster for Chicago, he cashes in handsomely.
3. Saquon Barkley OVER 112.5 rushing yards vs. Panthers (-115, BetMGM)
The line attached to Barkley may seem like the oddsmakers are off their rockers, but in reality, the stratospheric bar has not been set high enough. For the love of the gambling gods, he has a matchup against Carolina. The Hello Kitties of Charlotte have steadily ranked rock bottom in rush EPA defense. They’ve surrendered an absurd 4.89 yards per carry and 137.7 rushing yards per game just to running backs. In total, three RBs have blasted their way to 113 yards against Carolina. Barkley, the fantasy king who ranks No. 12 in YAC per attempt (3.40) and No. 6 in missed tackles forced (43) and has topped the above number six times this season, could achieve the feat midway through the third quarter. Keep the lactic acid flowing, Saquads.
4. Will Levis OVER 207.5 passing yards vs. Jaguars (-115, BetMGM)
Cream, sugar or maybe dipping a hardened scone are proper additives to coffee. However, squeezing mayo in a finely brewed cup? Dude, that’s nasty. Investors — this guy included — can only hope the Titans quarterback’s vertical game also packs the filth. Wonderfully dirty numbers should be tallied against Jacksonville. The Jaguars are dead last in pass EPA defense, surrendering 8.36 passing yards per attempt and 284.2 passing yards per game. In total, 10 gunslingers have hurled at least 208 yards against them. As his unwanted standings in deep-ball completion percentage (QB20) and overall adjusted completion percentage (QB27) prove, Levis is a largely unreliable QB. However, he’s averaged 237.1 passing yards per game, reaching the needed number in six of his last seven contests. Add a dollop of processed egg yolks and soybean oil to your morning routine. On second thought …
BetAlytics grade: A-
5. Chuba Hubbard UNDER 14.5 rushing attempts at Eagles (-115, BetMGM)
You’re a 13-point road underdog against a franchise many pundits believe will represent the NFC in New Orleans at Super Bowl LIX. That doesn’t seem like a setup for running success. To double down — with the Panthers in full evaluation mode — rookie RB Johnathan Brooks should continue to have his role grow. His snap share the last two weeks has jumped from 8.1% to 22.9%. As a result, Hubbard’s role has shrunk sharply. In Week 12 against Kansas City, he carried the rock 16 times. However, in Week 13 against Tampa Bay, the number fell to only a dozen. With a lopsided game script and the likelihood of Brooks seeing sizable action, the once-valuable Carolina workhorse is unlikely to pull the sled.
BetAlytics grade: B-
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