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During the NFL season, I will constantly scour the sportsbooks to find market inefficiencies tied to various player props. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you.
Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 equals 1.15 units wagered.
1. Brian Thomas Jr. OVER 77.5 receiving yards vs. Titans (-115, BetMGM)
When it comes to box score returns, Thomas is crushing harder than Beyoncé’s halftime performance on Christmas Day. Targeted an absurd 49 times over the last four games, the Jaguars rookie wide receiver has repeatedly scooted his boots all over the field, acquiring chunk gains in the process. During the stretch, he’s reached 78 receiving yards three times. On Sunday, Thomas should again tee off while exchanging season’s greetings with Jarvis Brownlee Jr. Since Week 12, the Tennessee rookie cornerback has given up an 82.1% catch rate, a 114.3 passer rating and the 12th-most yards of any pass defender (224), according to Pro Football Focus. The Titans have surrendered the second-fewest WR yards, but Thomas’ sterling CB matchup and Mac Jones’ reliance on him are simply unignorable.
BetAlytics grade: B-
2. Breece Hall OVER 21.5 receiving yards at Bills (-115, BetMGM)
Pop in that old cassette and blast “Dance Hall Days.” This number seems criminally low, especially in a game the Jets will likely scoreboard-chase. Hall is THE most active pass-catching back in the NFL. He’s averaged a league-high 27.6 routes per game among running backs, jogging out as a pass catcher on 72.7% of his snaps played. In Week 6 against the Bills, he caught six balls for 56 yards. Overall, 11 rushers have crossed the required threshold against Buffalo. In fact, no team has surrendered more receiving yards to RBs (47.6 per game) than Sean McDermott’s club. Given his established role whether operating as a safety valve or catching designed passes, Hall is worth tailing. With the Jets nearly double-digit ‘dogs on the road, he could accumulate catches after halftime.
3. Bucky Irving 90+ rushing yards vs. Panthers (+130, Caesars)
All Bucky does is make backers bank. Tampa Bay’s Master Blaster has cracked opponent pads, consistently moved the chains and generated appreciable ground gains. Among RBs, he has set the pace in YAC per attempt (4.15), ranks No. 11 in missed tackles forced (47) and is No. 3 in yards created per touch (4.95). The last time he clashed with the Hello Kitties, he rendered them hairless, totaling 152 rushing yards and a touchdown on 25 carries. Since Week 12, Carolina is No. 32 in rush EPA defense. Stretching out the Panthers' incompetence over the season, they’ve given up 5.10 yards per carry and 141.1 rushing yards per game to RBs, and eight running backs have crossed the 100-yard mark against them. In the rematch, Bucky again runs with reckless abandon.
BetAlytics grade: C+
4. Jerome Ford OVER 18.5 receiving yards vs. Dolphins (-110, BetMGM)
Even Chevy guys would agree: This prop is a tremendous low-buy opportunity. With Nick Chubb (foot) on IR, Ford is Cleveland’s main backfield man. Last week on 80.3% of snaps played, he sprinted out on 20 pass routes, totaling five targets, five receptions and 39 receiving yards. Even including his prior change-of-pace role, Ford has cashed the OVER on the above prop in four consecutive games. He’s sure-handed and supremely trustworthy, no matter if Dorian Thompson-Robinson or Jameis Winston is under center. The Dolphins present a premium matchup. They’re a decent No. 14 in pass EPA defense since Week 12, but they’ve conceded the 12th-most RB receiving yards (35.5 per game). A dozen pass-catching backs have hauled in 19 yards against them, too. Back Ford out of the garage.
BetAlytics grade: B-
5. Tucker Kraft OVER 31.5 receiving yards at Vikings (-115, BetMGM)
He’s Krafty, he gets around. He’s Krafty, he’s always down. He’s Krafty, and he’s just my type. Assuming his tender hip won’t keep him sidelined, Green Bay’s breakout tight end is worth slapping a dollar or 50 on. In Week 4 in his last do-si-do with the NFC North rival, he was targeted nine times and caught six passes for 53 yards and a TD. Hitting the OVER on the outlined prop in four straight games, Kraft also ranks top-five this season among all tight ends in total YAC, yards per route run (2.58), yards per target (10.3), yards per reception (14.0) and QB passer rating when targeted (138.1). Minnesota has strangely ranked appreciably in pass EPA defense (No. 2), but individual WRs and TEs have steadily poured punishing numbers against the Vikings. Seven plus-sized targets alone have registered at least 32 receiving yards in a game against them. Kraft again earns his cheddar in the second go-round.
Season record: 39-40, -0.72 units
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