Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills

Bills -10 Splits (53% money/39% bets on Steelers)

Total 38.5 (59% money/59% bets on UNDER)

It’s slightly tough to analyze or track the splits in this one.  There was a movement on the day of the game which impacted the weather, the total (which was as high as 41 and as low as 33), and analyzing handicapping and risk.  For instance, I had a bet on under 34.5.  As soon as the game was moved from Sunday to Monday, I was forced to bet over 35 to cover my risk and now I wanted to be on the over as I assumed this number would increase.  I’d discount it on the total but have more interest in it on the spread, which seems to favor Pittsburgh.  The snow is expected to end before kickoff, but winds will still be there between 10-15 mph,

Pittsburgh’s game plan has to be another steady dose of Najee Harris on the ground.  He has carried the ball 19, 27, and 26 times in Rudolph’s 3 starts.  Which is why over 15.5 rushing attempts appears to be a good way to look.  This looked even better when the game was being played on Sunday with the weather that day.  It’s still a good play in my opinion, but not as strong.  If Pittsburgh gets behind by 2+ scores (like the spread is indicating) they will be forced to pass. 

Over Harris 15.5 rushing attempts

Josh Allen has taken on more rushing attempts of late going over this 8.5 attempt mark in 2 straight and 4 out of the last 6.  There have been more designed runs for him, which I suspect should continue.  Allen has also thrown an interception in 16 out of 17 games this year.  Over 8.5 rushing attempts and over 0.5 INTs

Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Eagles -2.5 or -3 Splits (54% money/51% bets on Tampa)

Total 43 or 43.5 Splits (93% money/71% bets on UNDER)

No AJ Brown.  Eagles have lost 5 of 6.  How hurt is Baker?  How bad is the Eagles D?  There are so many reasons to like each side but they conflict.  I can’t determine but would lean to the home team which seems like where the money is slightly leaning towards.  The fact we are seeing the number come off of -3 speaks volumes.  What’s sticking out is the total with a extraordinary percent on the under which is where I have been leaning all week anyways.  Tampa was 11-6 to the under this year and Philly was 7-2 on the road to the under.  Interestingly the total was as low as 42.5 yesterday and we have seen an uptick.  Rain with virtually no wind, 1-2 mph, is expected.