NFL WILDCARD WEEKEND

Saturday

Miami Dolphins @ Kansas Chiefs

Chiefs -4 or -4.5 Splits (54% money/41% bets on MIAMI)

Total 43, 44 or 44.5 Splits (89% money/78% bets on UNDER)

I haven’t heard many people say they have liked the Dolphins in this one. And to be honest, I can’t blame them. But it feels like this move may be a little too much. I like KC to win the ball game, but at this point with all of the negativity on Miami and the ability to get +4.5, I’d have to lean that way. The splits seem to be favoring Miami too. I will be awfully interested to see if this come back towards Miami a bit on game day. All the pro money has been on the under as we can see. The line move today was interesting as it got down to 43 at most shops and now back to 44. Remember, 44 and 43 are key numbers when it comes to NFL totals. My leans are KC moneyline and Under 44. If this goes below 43, I would not recommend an under bet.

Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans

Browns -2 Splits (66% money/63% bets on Cleveland)

Total 44.5 Splits (71% money/69% bets on OVER)

Money is slightly leaning towards the Browns although we have come off of the key number of 3. QBs making their playoff debut against a QB that has playoff experience at 17-35-1 ATS the last 53. I am finding too much conflicting evidence to have a play on a team. If you want to tease the Texans to +8 or +8.5, I don’t blame you there. Cleveland’s defense has been night and day with their home/road splits. The total is 8-0 to the over in road games this year with the average points being scored at 54 per game. The Browns won 36-22 3 weeks ago, but Davis Mills and Case Keenum were under center for the Texans that day.

Props

I’m looking to attack an over for one of the Dolphins running backs. Lines have not yet been released as Raheem Mostert status is still questionable. I am expecting Miami to have a heavier run game in this one if they want to compete.

Jerome Ford U 44.5 rushing yards: The Texans ranked 6th in rush defense this year. Before giving up 188 yards last week to Jonathan Taylor, the Texans went through a stretch giving up less than 3 yards per carry. Ford only had 25 yards on 15 carries the last time these 2 got together. This was a game that the Browns were trying to run out the clock too.