North Carolina vs. Minnesota best bet: Season-opening offensive struggle

An under-the-radar game in Week 1 is North Carolina’s visit to Minnesota on Thursday night. I always like when two power conference teams meet this early in their schedules because it’s a good learning lesson for how the teams might look the rest of the season.

There has been a flip of the favorite in this game as North Carolina has moved from a peak of +3 all the way to a small road favorite. The likely reason for the adjustment are the Golden Gophers’ injury concerns with running back Darius Taylor and wide receiver Daniel Jackson. Taylor was Minnesota’s leading rusher last year with 799 yards, and Jackson led the team in receptions (59), receiving yards (831) and receiving touchdowns (eight) in 2023.

The pick — North Carolina-Minnesota UNDER 49.5 points (-110, BetMGM)

I’ll admit my original bet was on the Gophers at a short moneyline price when they were the favorite. For me, it was a fade of the Tar Heels, who I am also selling with their season win total. Getting P.J. Fleck’s squad in a situation where it just needed to win the game at home against a team I have low expectations was something that interested me enough to bet.

However, now I’m not in an ideal situation in terms of closing-line value because of the injuries to Taylor and Jackson. I would hold off on betting the Minnesota side until there is more information about the players’ status, but another way to attack this game is betting the under.

If Taylor and/or Jackson can’t go, it could be a struggle for the Golden Gophers to score points with a new quarterback in Max Brosmer. I believe the New Hampshire transfer can be an upgrade over last season’s starter, Athan Kaliakmanis, but Brosmer needs his most important offensive weapons to reach his potential.

I want to bet against the North Carolina offense, which has an unsettled QB situation as the program adjusts to life after Drake Maye. Mack Brown’s plan is to play two quarterbacks in Texas A&M transfer Max Johnson and sophomore Conner Harrell. If you believe in the famous John Madden saying “If you have two quarterbacks, you have none,” it could be a struggle for the Tar Heels.

Definitely monitor the status of Taylor and Jackson if you want to bet on the side leading up to the 8 p.m. ET kickoff, but it’s worth playing the under.

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