Milwaukee Brewers (49-42) @ Cincinnati Reds (50-41)

Over 9.5 (-120 DraftKings)

Most books have already moved to 10 on this, so I am surprised to still see a 9.5 out there. The Reds are 2nd in the league overall to the over this year at 58.2% and are 56.8% to the over at home. The Reds have the 4th worst team ERA at 4.87 and send Graham Ashcraft (4-6) 6.28 ERA to the mound to take on Corbin Burnes (7-5) 3.94 ERA. 86% of the money is on the over but only 42% of the bets are signaling pro action behind this.

Cleveland Guardians (45-45) @ Texas Rangers (52-39)

Rangers Moneyline (-135 BetMGM)

As far as moneyline this seems to be the hot play today with 81% of the money and 74% of bets backing the home team. Both pros and the public see value. Texas has been the better team so far this year, even though they slumped down the stretch leading into the All-Star break. A very good pitching match-up between Aaron Civale (3-2) 2.56 ERA vs Jon Gray (6-5) 3.29 ERA. Another slight cause of concern if backing the Rangers here is their bullpen. They rank 6th worst with a 4.54 ERA while Cleveland has the league’s best at 3.09. Pass for me, but this is where the money is flowing.

Washington Nationals (36-54) @ St. Louis Cardinals (38-52)

Over 9 (-120 DraftKings)

This one has also move higher at many shops painted 9.5 (+100) at some books. St. Louis is 23-16-1 at home to the over while Washington is slightly below average at 41-45-4 to the over this year. 82% of the money is on the over but only 69% of bets signaling some pro action here. The Nationals have yet to name a starter. St. Louis sends Miles Mikolas (5-5) 4.23 ERA to the hill. I’d keep my eye on the over in this entire series.

I don’t think a Yankees/Braves/Rays parlay mixture of 2 of the 3 are a bad play tonight either.