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NCAAB — 12/21/24

Ohio State vs. Kentucky prediction and best bets

By 
Brad Evans
WagerWire Contributor
Jordan Prather, Imagn Images

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Sometimes you want to make a quick pitstop, empty the bladder, grab a bag of salty snacks and limber up the limbs before hitting the open road again. For the fast-minded who enjoy simple $2 scratchers hoping to uncover the jackpot-winning image, here are quick thoughts and the lean on Ohio State vs. Kentucky at Madison Square Garden.

Ohio State (7-4) vs. No. 4 Kentucky (10-1)
Date: Saturday, December 21
Site: Madison Square Garden in New York
Time: 5:30 p.m. ET
TV: CBS

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The pick — SGP: Kentucky ML, Ohio State +13.5 (+129, Caesars w/boost)

Cue the old-school Cypress Hill.

On the insane-in-the-membrane college basketball fan-base rankings, no school is remotely close to category pacesetter Kentucky. Big Blue Nation is unrivaled in its passion, demands and quest for perfection. North Carolina, Duke, UConn and others simply don’t hold a candle.

When John Calipari bolted for Arkansas last offseason, many outsiders were baffled. However in Lexington, his departure to Fayetteville prompted numerous champagne corks to pop.

Kentucky, as witnessed in its NCAA Tournament opening-round exit against the Oakland Grizzlies last March, rarely, if ever, lived up to locals’ expectations under Cal. Quite a few questioned Mark Pope’s arrival from BYU to replace him, but the Wildcats are 10-1 with key neutral-court wins against Duke and Gonzaga.

This UK team is experienced, balanced and, frankly, ballin’ out. If one downside exists with the Wildcats, it’s the lack of physicality in the post.

Andrew Carr and Amari Williams aren’t sickly trees, but in general, finesse is the team-wide brand. Otherwise, given Kentucky’s top-30 standing in effective field-goal percentage offense and effective field-goal percentage defense, the squad is strong virtually everywhere.

Floor general Lamont Butler (who you might remember from his Final Four run with San Diego State) is a two-way enforcer. He’s a tenacious defender who also routinely embarrasses opponents via facilitations (4.1 assists per game) and 3-pointers (48.1 3PT%).

Last week, the Buckeyes were completely de-shelled in a 91-53 home defeat against No. 2-ranked Auburn. That demoralizing smashing may lead some to believe another humiliation is imminent. However, point guard Bruce Thornton, like UK’s Butler, is an end-to-end bully who averages 5.1 assists and shoots a blistering 48.7% from 3. The matchup should be epic.

Final buzzer: Former Kentucky player Aaron Bradshaw is a game-time decision (personal reasons), but if he returns to action, Ohio State’s pick-and-pop game receives a major boost. If he sits, the degree of difficulty increases for the Buckeyes.

As the eFG data clearly show (No. 27 eFG offense, No. 18 eFD defense), the Fightin’ Jim Jacksons are much better than outward perceptions suggest. If Bradshaw is on the floor, they can hang tough. Even without him, their rainmaking ability as a collective (40.5 3PT%) should keep them within sniffing distance inside The World’s Most Famous Arena.

Season record: 11-7, +3.99 units

BONUS TIME — 2-leg ML: Oregon, San Diego State (+110)

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