Ole Miss vs. Florida Best Bet
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No. 9 Ole Miss (8-2) at Florida (5-5)
Date: Saturday, November 23
Time: Noon ET
TV: ABC
Two Saturdays ago, I had a complete shift on how I thought of Ole Miss. All season I believed the Rebels were overvalued because of their favorable schedule and Lane Kiffin’s poor track record against top-tier competition, but their 28-10 win over Georgia left me very impressed.
Ole Miss moved the ball easily on the Bulldogs, and it should’ve scored more points but settled for five field goals. The Rebels did this all without star wide receiver Tre Harris, who didn’t suit up after being a game-time decision with a lower-body injury. The defense also dominated as the transfer-laden unit looked everything it was billed up to be.
That Week 11 performance carries even more weight after Georgia’s 31-17 statement victory over Tennessee last Saturday. Now, my stance on Ole Miss is it would be a team no one would want to face in the first round if it made the College Football Playoff, and it has the potential to win multiple games in December and January.
The pick — Ole Miss -10 (-110, Caesars)
If the Rebels win out, they will certainly be one of the CFP at–large teams after moving up to No. 9 in the latest rankings. They find themselves in a very good situation for their penultimate regular-season game at Florida.
Ole Miss is fresh off a bye week. It was an important reset after the storm-the-field victory over Georgia, and players like Harris could get healthier.
The Gators have to be running on fumes after the stretch of football they have played this month. They took Georgia down to the wire before losing 34-20 in Week 10, lost 49-17 at Texas the following week and then earned a hard-fought 27-16 win over LSU last Saturday.
The Florida defense was on the field for 92 snaps and almost 42 minutes against the Tigers. I imagine fatigue will set in for the Gators this weekend after recording an upset victory over a rival and playing two physical opponents in back-to-back weeks.
Right now, Florida is exactly where oddsmakers had it in the summer with five wins. The Gators have two chances to record the coveted sixth victory and become bowl eligible. Next week, they travel to face lowly Florida State, which presents a much better opportunity to obtain win No. 6.
If things start slow for Florida against Ole Miss on Saturday, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Gators rested some players on defense and treaded carefully with true freshman QB DJ Lagway, who returned last week after suffering a hamstring injury against Georgia.
The Rebels have the incentive to run up the score. They are unlikely to make the SEC championship game because of tiebreakers, but they still have a chance to climb up the CFP rankings and host a first-round playoff game if they get style points.
There could also be hidden motivation for Kiffin, who reportedly remains a candidate for the Florida coaching job. He pays attention to the rumor mill, so I don’t think he would mind making a statement in Gainesville to rile up some of the fans there.
Expect an Ole Miss rout on Saturday, and monitor the Rebels as a team to bet on going forward.
Season record: 16-16, -1.29 units
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