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Sometimes you want to make a quick pit stop, empty the bladder, grab a bag of salty snacks and limber up the limbs before hitting the open road again. For the fast-minded who enjoy simple $2 scratchers hoping to uncover the jackpot-winning image, here are quick thoughts and the lean on Purdue vs. Michigan State.
No. 13 Purdue (19-7, 11-4) at No. 14 Michigan State (20-5. 11-3)
Date: Tuesday, February 18
Time: 7 p.m. ET
TV: Peacock
In college basketball, the winds of change blow at a gale force this time each year.
One minute teams can bask under a vibrant sun only to be enveloped in darkness and doom the next. Essentially, an entire season can flip in a blink — leading to good or bad.
Michigan State is a prime example.
[ Bracket Big Board: Brad Evans' latest NCAA Tournament projections ]
Last week, Sparty was reeling. Inexplicably undercut by an unexciting Indiana squad at the Breslin Center, MSU entered last Saturday’s game at Illinois having been on the wrong side in three of its last four contests. The continuation of a February free fall seemed inevitable.
However, after digging out of a 16-point first-half deficit, Tom Izzo’s fighters overcame the initial onslaught to bury the Illini with midrange jumpers and Jaxon Kohler triples. They won going away in a 79-65 triumph as Izzo officially supplanted Bob Knight as the Big Ten’s all-time winningest coach.
But how back on track truly is Michigan State?
The pick — SGP: Purdue +8.5, Game OVER 142.5 (+105, Caesars)
Purdue aims to regain its footing after a surprising 94-84 home loss to Wisconsin on Saturday. Over the last month, the Boilermakers have performed at a high level on a per possession basis.
During the eight-game stretch, Matt Painter’s crew is No. 12 overall on BartTorvik, ranking No. 9 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 36 in adjusted defensive efficiency. With back-to-back defeats (including a 75-73 loss at Michigan), Zach Edey U is trying to rediscover its identity with March looming.
Offensively, Purdue isn’t suffering. Its 1.260 points per possession scored over the last 30 days is spectacular. It’s the No. 312 standing in effective field-goal percentage defense during the same span that looks rather ominous.
The Boilers have contested arc attempts suitably, but they’ve given up a staggering 63.1% shooting on 2-pointers. Trey Kaufman-Renn and Caleb Furst must exude energy around the tin for an upset to occur.
As for the Green and White, which version shows up Tuesday night is difficult to pinpoint. The Spartans punished Illinois over roughly 60 minutes, but at No. 26 in Torvik the past 30 days, their advanced metrics profile raises questions.
Michigan State makes scoring a chore inside. A tremendous rebounding team that denies exceptionally well, the Spartans are No. 17 in eFG% defense and top-85 in offensive and defensive rebounding percentage over their last eight games. Also top-10 in 3-point percentage defense and No. 34 in near-proximity D on the season, they’re relentless in their shot contests.
This should be a fast-paced affair. Purdue’s forgiving defense is a major concern, but point guard Braden Smith is a brilliant distributor, driver and scorer. His outside efforts (38.6 3PT%) along with the sharp shooting of Fletcher Loyer (45.3 3PT%) and C.J. Cox (42.4 3PT%) will keep the Boilers in the hunt.
Admittedly ice cold in column picks of late, this -EV bettor is optimistic a Boil order takes effect.
Season record: 18-20, -2.78 units
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