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Strategy — 4/1/24

Sports Betting Strategy: Tips for When the Steam Rises

By 
TheGamingJuice
and 
@wagerwire

Brad Evans creator of "The Bracket Big Board" and host of "The Fade Five" shares betting tips

Broccoli, carrots and peppers properly cooked to an appropriate softness, seasoned with sea salt and black pepper and topped with an olive oil based sauce.

Steamed vegetables, when fixed right, are downright delicious. Sorry for offending you, Al Michaels.

In gambling, “steam” takes on a less than delectable meaning. It occurs when a favorite, wagered on heavily by perceived sharps, experiences dramatic line movement that often spikes 2-4 points or higher in a matter of minutes.

It already has happened a number of times this conference tournament season. On Monday alone, Hofstra jumped from -5.5 at open to -8 at close against Stony Brook in the CAA Tournament, and Saint Mary’s skyrocketed from -9 to -11.5 in its WCC Tournament semifinal against Santa Clara. In the end, one covered (Gaels) and the other (Pride) left bandwagoners second-guessing.

Of course, the most publicized line climb involved Temple. Opening as a +1.5 underdog to UAB, the Owls catapulted to +7.5 at tip time. A gambling watchdog immediately flagged the action, spurring an inquest. Reportedly, three previous Temple games generated irregular betting patterns. Wild.

In normal, non-Temple-related circumstances, a steamed team entices amateurs and experienced gamblers alike to join the ride. When presented an opportunity, should you hit the sauna?

Here are three tips on how I personally approach these instances when they arise.

Research is your friend. Pour over as much data as possible before making a bet, period. Specific to college hoops, free sites like BartTorvik and Haslametrics are invaluable. For those willing to spend a little coin for additional statistical references, KenPom, ShotQuality and Evan Miya are worth the investment. Crunch the numbers, view the strengths and weaknesses, and weigh the projections. Also, social media is a supreme research tool. Verify through searches that nothing cataclysmic occurred to key players or the head coach. If all parties are accounted for, it only adds to the line movement intrigue. In that event, let the analytics dictate your decision.

Think about CLV. No, this has nothing to do with Cleveland. It’s an acronym for “closing line value.” Candidly, it represents what every seasoned gambler strives for. For example, if you bet on Team A at +1 and the line swings to Team A -3 before tip, supreme CLV is achieved. Of course, it guarantees nothing, but psychologically it suggests your original thought process was correct. When significant line shifts occur, always keep CLV in mind and, in general, adhere to it. If it evaporates, pass.

“Locks” don’t exist. Though shady pick sellers will tell you otherwise, guarantees or easy money aren’t a cemented outcome in ANY wager. The game still has to be played. And, last I checked, humans are at work.

As in the cited examples, sometimes steamed lines win, other times they fail miserably. With information in hand, whether it’s injury news or numeric measurements, always ponder deeply before pulling the trigger. If you decide there’s still line value involved, even at a bloated number, fire away. If not, live to fight another day.

If you contemplate joining the thundering steam herd, keep the above tips top of mind. You could make some moolah, or you could save your bankroll from an unfortunate trampling.

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