Sunday Night Football picks: Bills at Ravens

SIGN UP: Get the best player prop and game betting projections at BetAlytics. Use code "JUICE" for a special promo rate.

Prime-time NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you.

Prop play — Justice Hill OVER 14.5 receiving yards vs. Bills (-115, Caesars)

Against a Bills secondary that’s ranked No. 1 in pass EPA defense, backing Hill is entirely justifiable. The sporadically used Ravens scatback could flash similarly as he did in the season opener in Kansas City.

Due to the outstanding coverage play of Buffalo’s Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas, offensive coordinators have often implemented screens and swings to running backs in the short field to move the chains. As a result, the Bills have given up 6.3 receptions and 54.0 receiving yards per game to the position — both ranking inside the top-five most allowed to RBs. In total, four RBs have tallied 15 or more receiving yards against them already this season.

Hill isn’t the busiest of backs. In three games, he’s averaged a mere 8.7 routes run. However, he has enticed 14.1% of Baltimore’s target share and is slotted No. 5 in yards per route run (3.19), so he should grab at least a pair of passes. Since he’s averaging 8.3 yards per reception, two catches is all that’s likely required.

For the third time in four weeks, Hill crosses 15 yards through the air.

Prop season record: 4-7 -3.35 units

SGP — Josh Allen 25+ rushing yards, Lamar Jackson 45+ rushing yards, James Cook 2+ receptions (+188, Caesars)

Josh Allen 25+ rushing yards. At 6-foot-5 and 237 pounds, Allen is your classic schoolyard bully with the ball firmly tucked in hand. Totaling 3.18 yards after contact per attempt, he typically lays waste to would-be tacklers on steam-ahead plows. On 5.7 carries per game, he has scampered to 25 or more yards in two of three contests. Given the Ravens’ assertive pass rush — they’ve applied pocket heat on 25.0% of QB dropbacks — Allen should call his own number fairly often. OC Joe Brady is also bound to feature him in the shotgun QB draw, a Buffalo offensive calling card. Baltimore has yet to allow a passer to exceed 10 yards on the ground, but that changes Sunday night.

Lamar Jackson 45+ rushing yards. In the open field, Jackson has juke moves equal to Jackie Chan in his prime. He shimmies. He shakes. And he leaves defenders wrapping air. Setting the pace in rushing yards among quarterbacks, the Ravens quarterback is averaging a staggering 84.7 yards per game. His patented elusiveness has been on display: On 35 attempts, he’s forced nine missed tackles, the most among signal callers. The Bills yielded 57 yards to the Dachshund of the Desert, Kyler Murray, in Week 1. Against an even more electric runner in Jackson, they should surrender far more. A perfect three-for-three in achieving what’s needed, Jackson continues to bat 1.000.

James Cook 2+ receptions. A top-five fixture in fantasy leagues, the Bobby Flay of running backs should again be an Iron Chef for the gaming masses. Quite active as a receiver, Cook has totaled 29 routes through three games, posted an 88.9 catch percentage, attracted 12.7% of the team’s target share and reeled in two or more Allen passes in two of three games. Conceding the 13th-most receptions to RBs this season, Baltimore has been somewhat exploitable in the short field. In total, five RBs have caught two or more passes against the Ravens. Game flow is always an influential factor in RB passing props, but in what should be a strongly contested affair, look for Cook to serve up a pipin’ hot two catches early.

SGP season record: 3-8, -4.95 units

WagerWire's Favorite Things from this Creator:

More of Brad's Free Picks and Strategies

Pods: The Fade 5 Podcast