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Prime-time NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you.
Prop play — Isiah Pacheco OVER 49.5 rushing yards (-110, BetMGM)
Exchanging smooches with Lady Luck the entire season, the Kansas City Chiefs are by far the luckiest team in the NFL. Last week’s botched snap by the Las Vegas Raiders as time expired was the latest example.
You can argue “good teams find a way to win” until you’re blue in the face, but late-game circumstances have simply broken the Chiefs’ way. Really it's the subject matter of a made-for-TV Hallmark Channel movie. Yep, that unfortunately exists — and people watched it in droves. Oh, the power of the Kelce-Swift romance.
In what’s sure to be another riveting nail-biter Sunday night at Arrowhead Stadium, the defending Super Bowl champions host Jim Harbaugh and the Los Angeles Chargers. Sorry, Coach Harbaugh, a brimming glass of milk will not be served with the on-special ribeye.
As previously discussed in this week’s Fantasy Flames RB piece, the Punisher is prepared to dole out the pain.
Pacheco didn’t set the box score ablaze in his return against the Raiders, but his vintage downhill violence was displayed. Seeing action on just eight snaps, he recorded 49 total yards on eight touches. His 13 yards after contact wasn’t an attention grabber, but he outplayed placeholder Kareem Hunt, who registered a lousy 1.14 yards after contact per attempt.
With the rust shaken off, Pacheco receiving at least 11-13 carries Sunday night is bankable.
The Chargers have been a fixture inside the top 10 of EPA per play defensive data all season, but they're not without vulnerabilities. Opponents have grounded and pounded their way to appreciable chunks against them. Since Week 9, L.A. ranks an exploitable No. 28 in rush EPA defense, giving up 4.55 yards per carry and 108.4 rushing yards per game just to running backs. Hello favorable matchup!
Operating behind a K.C. offensive line that’s No. 4 in run-blocking efficiency according to Pro Football Focus, Pacheco — with his defender-displacing style — is worth backing. Honestly, if the projected volume materializes, the above number is quite soft.
Bring the pain. Get the gains.
Prop season record: 14-19 -6.24 units
SGP play — Chargers +10.5, Justin Herbert 175+ passing yards, DeAndre Hopkins OVER 3.5 receptions (+138, DraftKings)
Chargers +10.5. In what’s predictably going to be a one-possession contest, jacking up the points on LAC seems like a wise decision. Despite their glaring defensive flaws, Herbert and friends are bound to battle from beginning to end. The Bolts are a middling No. 17 in EPA per play offense over the past five weeks, but the Chiefs’ unraveling defense will be taken advantage of. Since Week 9, Steve Spagnuolo’s unit is No. 30 in EPA per play defense. Opponents have logged considerable vertical success against K.C. Even with a banged-up Ladd McConkey, Harbaugh will lean heavily on his QB’s golden arm. Down J.K. Dobbins, the ground game is suffering. Throw in the Chargers’ 8-3 record against the spread on the standard line, and the alternative number becomes all the more attractive.
Justin Herbert 175+ passing yards. During his sluggish start to the 2024 campaign, Herbert only finished with 179 passing yards in his first tango with the Chiefs in Week 4. Don’t bank on another subpar performance the second go-round. The Chargers quarterback has tossed what’s needed in six of his last eight games. On the season, he ranks top-seven among qualifying passers in deep-ball completion percentage (44.4%) and air yards per attempt (8.6). Sure, Quentin Johnston should never be trusted with grandpa’s ashes, but McConkey, Josh Palmer, Will Dissly and others are fairly reliable. The most substantial selling point: K.C. is No. 29 in pass EPA defense in its last five games, surrendering 256.0 passing yards per game, and overall, 12 of the 13 opposing quarterbacks have thrown for at least 175 yards. Back the Bolt.
DeAndre Hopkins OVER 3.5 receptions. The mano-y-mano square-off between the Chiefs’ savvy veteran wideout and fast-rising cornerback Tarheeb Still isn’t the greatest. On 341 coverage snaps, the Chargers rookie has only allowed a 57.1 catch percentage and 66.2 passer rating to his assignments. Still, the posted number is likely a tick too low. D-Hop has snagged four or more passes in four of his last five games. Averaging a healthy 6.6 targets per game over that stretch and sporting a 107.8 passer rating when targeted, the crafty veteran should best his man a minimum of four times. LAC is No. 7 in pass EPA defense since Week 9, but it has given up 4+ receptions to WRs 16 times this season. Show off the acrobatics, Hopkins.
SGP season record: 14-22, +0.27 units
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