Sunday Night Football picks: Chiefs at Falcons

SIGN UP: Get the best player prop and game betting projections at BetAlytics. Use code "JUICE" for a special promo rate.

Prime-time NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you.

Prop Play: Carson Steele anytime touchdown (+135, Caesars)

This week, debates in the fantasy football community over who emerges in the Kansas City backfield is a divide on par with Republicans and Democrats. Yep, it’s that wide.

There are the Kareem Hunt supporters. There are the Samaje Perine stumpers. There are even Keaontay Ingram believers.

However, Team Steele receives this gamer’s vote.

Steele couldn’t outrun a three-legged basset hound given his 4.75 40-yard wheels, but his hulkish 6-foot, 228-pound frame is an ideal match for power-back work — especially near the goal line.

Atlanta isn’t the spongiest front, but the Falcons do rank a mediocre No. 16 in EPA rush D through two weeks. They have yet to allow a running back touchdown and have given up only 3.82 yards per carry to rushers.

However, there are benefits to plowing behind a top-10 Chiefs offensive line and playing with some dude named Patrick Mahomes. When K.C. knocks at the door of splashing six, expect Steele to receive ample opportunities. At plus odds to convert just one end-zone plunge, Crocky-J’s owner could have tails slapping.

Prop season record: 4-4 -0.20 units

SGP: Ray-Ray McCloud 2+ receptions, Bijan Robinson 25+ receiving yards, Patrick Mahomes 15+ rushing yards (+140, Caesars)

Ray-Ray McCloud 2+ receptions. Through two weeks, Uncle Ray-Ray has developed into a Kirk Cousins intermediate-field favorite. With Darnell Mooney and Drake London working primarily outside the numbers, McCloud has earned his QB’s trust on over-the-middle crosses, posts and slants. Against Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, he tallied a healthy 23.1% of the team target share (6.0 per game), catching seven passes for 94 yards. At No. 9 in win rate against man coverage and with 23 total route wins, according to PlayerProfiler, he’s proven to be a DB handful in one-on-one situations. Also, by ranking No. 30 in yards per route run (2.00) and averaging 13.4 yards per reception, McCloud isn’t some early season mirage. Matched up against primary slot DB Chamarri Conner, he should easily grab at least two passes. This year, Conner has given up eight receptions on 10 targets. Tasty.

Bijan Robinson 25+ receiving yards. No, he has not done an end-zone jig, but the popular first-round fantasy pick has otherwise delivered on every expectation. Thus far, he’s earned 76.4% of the opportunity share, totaling 82.5 rushing yards and 34.0 receiving yards per game. Digging down on his pass-catching production, Robinson has averaged 20.0 routes, tallied 19.2% of the team target share and caught 90.0% of his intended looks. In Week 1, Kansas City refused to defend the flat, allowing six receptions and 52 yards to Baltimore’s Justice Hill. In a contest that should be hotly contested, the Falcons’ multipurpose dynamo delivers what’s needed, possibly by halftime.

Patrick Mahomes 15+ rushing yards. Kansas City’s booty scooter isn’t the most mechanically sound sprinter, but when given green grass, he’s the definition of “opportunistic scrambler.” Atlanta is only No. 25 in pocket pressure rate and has dialed up the heat on just 18.8% of quarterback dropbacks, and in the Falcons’ first two games, Justin Fields and Jalen Hurts rolled out, tucked and bolted for a combined 142 yards on 27 carries. Against similar pressure last week against Cincinnati, Mahomes darted for 29 yards on four carries. In a game he’s sure to call his own number 4-5 times, he’s likely to reach the alternative number above.

SGP season record: 3-5, -1.95 units

WagerWire's Favorite Things from this Creator:

More of Brad's Free Picks and Strategies

Pods: The Fade 5 Podcast