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Prime-time NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you.
Prop play — SGP - Zach Charbonnet 75+ rushing/receiving yards, anytime touchdown (+115, BetMGM)
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As your wine-enthusiast aunt would say on a vineyard visit to California, “Charbonnet ALL DAY!”
Yes, it’s a phrase that can end in a brutal next-morning headache, but it’s also a statement that can bring scintillating production in other markets, namely player prop betting.
Seattle’s rising rusher is a wagon. Hop aboard, fire off a few tickets on various action and enjoy the profitable ride.
On Sunday night in Starbucks City, he is sure to pack a double-espresso jolt.
Kenneth Walker III, who’s officially listed as doubtful with a calf injury, is unlikely to suit up for a second-consecutive week. Last Sunday in Arizona with the incumbent sidelined, Charbonnet carried the lion’s share and roared … loudly. On a tireless 29 touches, he amassed 193 scrimmage yards, caught seven passes and scored two touchdowns. Even non-investors raised a glass to that.
Under the prime-time lights, Charbonnet should shine brightly against Green Bay.
The Packers rank a middling No. 14 in rush EPA defense since Week 7. Overall, they have allowed a healthy 4.26 yards per carry, 131.8 total yards per game and 12 touchdowns to running backs. In total, 10 RBs have notched 75 total yards against them, and six have satisfied both requirements.
Charbonnet has been the picture of efficiency. In 13 games, the UCLA product is RB5 among all qualifying running backs in yards after contact per attempt (3.61), near the top in missed tackle percentage (26.8%) and RB6 in yards created per touch (4.41).
He’s powerful. He’s slippery. And he’s hard to wrangle.
Pop a cork, pour a glass and sip to your betting heart’s content while Charbonnet crushes Packers pads.
With glass in hand, your vino-minded aunt is very much prepared to celebrate.
Prop season record: 15-20 -6.24 units
SGP play — Josh Jacobs anytime touchdown, Seahawks +8.5 (+130, BetMGM)
Josh Jacobs anytime TD. Unbelievably in August, there were individuals in fantasy circles who were skittish about the former Raider moving to Green Bay. It was dumbfounding. Not a naysayer, this almost-always-wrong prognosticator confidently ranked Jacobs among the top-10 fantasy RBs. He has brought nothing but consistency and touchdowns. He’s crossed the chalk in six of his last seven contests, including four straight. This season, he’s top-10 in YAC per attempt (3.45), total missed tackles forced (33) and total yards created (1,045). There’s no value at -190 betting on this prop individually, but when wisely strung together with additional action, we reduce the juice and get seduced by the juice. Seattle ranks No. 5 in rush EPA defense over the last five weeks, but overall, the Seahawks have conceded a whopping 4.89 yards per carry, 109.5 rushing yards per game and 10 TDs to running backs. Given Jacobs’ massive red-zone role — he’s tallied the fourth-most RB red-zone touches (49) — counting on him to splash six is quite buyable.
Seahawks +8.5. Oh the beauty of negative correlation, an age-old strategy in SGP construction. When a positive event is matched with an unrelated market, it malfunctions the algorithm, triggering a significant plus-odds outcome. Tricks like this is how shrewd bettors can best ‘books over the long haul. Foolproof? Of course, not. Unpredictable humans and not-programmed robots play the games, but employing such methods can often lead to a profitable return. In this instance, Geno Smith and friends should remain highly competitive. Sure, Green Bay has performed well on the road, emerging victorious in four of its last five away games. However, Seattle, which ranks No. 1 in EPA per play defense since Week 10 and is also 4-1 in its last five straight-up, isn’t simply going to offer hugs. On the standard line in their last three road games, the Packers are 0-2-1. In a contest with significant playoff implications for the home team, the ‘Hawks stay within striking distance, at a minimum.
SGP season record: 14-23, +0.57 units
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