San Francisco 49ers -2 or -2.5 vs Kansas City Chiefs

Total 47.5

FanDuel Betting Splits

KC Chiefs Spread (74% money/70% bets)

KC Chiefs Moneyline (66% money/61% bets)

Under (63% money/53% bets)

Draftkings Betting Splits

KC Chiefs Spread (63% money/66% bets)

KC Chiefs Moneyline (67% money/ 78% bets)

Over (65% money/65% bets)

The splits vary slightly from book to book, but the majority of money and splits seem to be siding with Kansas City.  I’ve consumed about 25 hours of Super Bowl coverage so far and I can tell you the majority of people I hear are also siding with the Chiefs.  On ESPN, 49 people have selected KC and just 15 picked SF.  On VSIN 21 people picked KC and just 13 picked SF.  It is reported that the biggest bets and respected money are on San Francisco.  From what I have heard, Billy Waters is on the 49ers.

This line opened with SF as a -3 favorite and was quickly bought off of that.  On Monday and Tuesday after the championship games, there was continued buying on KC to push the spread down to -1.  Since then it was a steady flow of 49ers money pushing this back to -2 or -2.5.  There is a 0% chance of this getting back to 3 unless someone gets hurt or does something stupid on the 49ers team.

Most of the arguments I have heard is that you can’t go against Mahomes.  Many want to keep doubting Brock Purdy.  You can say KC has a slight advantage at coaching, but even if that’s true Kyle Shannan is right behind him.  I’m sure Shannan wants to avenge the 2020 loss to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl and his breakdown vs New England in Super Bowl LI.

It’s a fascinating game and one I can’t find an edge to pick a team here.  My analysis on the betting market is the majority is on the Chiefs with your heaviest of hitters backing the 49ers.  Generally you’d want to side with the 49ers with this information.  No bet from me on the team.  Good luck if you are.  Prop article to follow later in the week.

Under 2nd half and 4th Quarter

The best angle I’ve found on the total is the 2nd half and 4th quarter unders.  Kansas City is 18-2 to the under in the 2nd half and 19-1 to the under in the 4th quarter.  The way the Chiefs play ball, this makes a ton of sense.  Most books are at 23.5 and 13.5.  I did find a 24.5 (-130) for the first half and 14.5 (-127).  Both are worth paying the extra vig with how important those key numbers are.  I’ll ride this well paying trend into the last game of the season and hope it ends well like it has been.