Super Bowl 57 has the second slimmest spread in NFL history, with the Eagles currently sitting as a 1.5 point favorite. It is sacrilegious to not pick a side in the big game in order to at least have some rooting interest at your Super Bowl party, but doing so is no easy task this year.

On one hand, the Eagles have a superior roster from top to bottom, with the better weapons, better offensive line, and better defense. On the other hand, the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes who is the most talented QB to ever play the position. It always feels incredibly foolish when having a wager against Mahomes, only to watch him go up and down the field scoring touchdown after touchdown.

Making this bet is essentially the equivalent of betting on the opening coin toss, however it will at least keep you engaged for the entire night as this should be a great ballgame.

With all of the NBA trade deadline buzz going down this week, including the blockbuster Kevin Durant deal, it feels like the Big Game has started to lose some of its buzz. With the whole sports world, including Durant himself, locked in on the Phoenix area, it is time to refocus on the Super Bowl. With all of the betting action coming in throughout the week, the spread hasn’t budged and remains at -1.5 in favor of the Birds. The lack of any line movement tells us how split the public and professional bettors are, and how sharp Vegas was with their opening line.

I have gone back and forth all week, one day loving the depth and talent of the Eagles roster, and the next reminding myself how betting against Patrick Mahomes usually goes. One day it is the dominance of the Eagles defensive line, and the next day the unstoppable route running of Travis Kelce that has me ready to pick a side. As I sit here on Thursday afternoon, it is time to put away the flip flops, and make a pick on the game.

After much deliberation and minimal research, I have decided to lay down a responsibly large wager on the Philadelphia Eagles. As foolish as it feels to bet against Mahomes, we have seen this movie before. With two weeks to prepare before the big game, the better defense generally maintains the upper hand on the high powered offense. The Bucs stifled Mahomes 2 years ago en route to a blowout win to name the most recent occurrence, and that was a Chiefs offense that included Tyreek Hill in addition to Kelce. Prior to that, there have been three occasions when the #1 defense has matched up with #1 offense in a Super Bowl, and each time it was the defense that prevailed. Even when the unstoppable New England Patriots offense came in undefeated to face the Giants in 2007, it was the defensive line that ruled the day leading to a Giants improbable win. I can envision this Eagles defensive line causing similar issues for Mahomes and his still injured ankle, as they get after the passer at the 3rd highest clip in NFL history.

In addition to their historically good defensive front, the Eagles have a dominant offensive line as well. Led by Jason Kelce in the middle, this unit will be far better than the one Chris Jones ate for lunch in the AFCCG. While Jones will make his share of plays, they will be fewer and farther between against Philly. Assuming Hurts does have time to throw, I am not sure that the Chiefs will be able to stop a passing attack led by AJ Brown and Devontae Smith. We saw Higgins and Chase get loose whenever Burrow had time to throw, and the only thing that kept the Bengals from participating in this game is that he rarely had enough of it. Hurts on the other hand, will have plenty of time to find his two studs out wide, and a more than serviceable Tight End in the middle.

When the passing game isn’t there, the Eagles are a dynamic team on the ground led by their Quarterback and these Chiefs have struggled against rushing QBs. Hurts has not run much this postseason, but that is only because he has not had to. With this being the final game, I would anticipate Hurts taking more chances on the ground when the opportunities arise. The RPO is difficult to guard against, and the Eagles run it to perfection. When he decides to give it, Myles Sanders has proven to be a good back, and Kenneth Gainwell has given them a nice boost as of late.

Sure there is a strong chance that Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce make me eat these words Monday morning. Kelce has been unstoppable in getting open for Mahomes, even when the opposition knows exactly where the ball is going. Coach Reid and this team clearly have revenge from two years ago on their minds, and athletes like Mahomes typically don’t lose two in a row. The emergence of Isiah Pachecco gives this offense a real threat out of the backfield, as the man is impossible to tackle. MVS, Toney, and JuJu are not all-pros, but they are serviceable big game Wide Receivers that Mahomes gets the most out of. For all of these reasons and more, the Chiefs are an excellent football team that deserves to be in this spot.

As tough as it is to do, I am not allowing myself to get enamored by the all-world Quarterback in red and white. He will make plays, and the Chiefs will score points. However, I am going with the deeper team and the more talented roster from top to bottom. The dual threat of Hurts and the two Wide Receivers have been dominant all year, and the Chiefs are not the defense that slows them down. Grease those street poles in Philly, because another parade is coming to town.

Eagles 27 Chiefs 24.