College football is finally back, and I’m leaning toward TCU -6.5 at -163 on DraftKings in Saturday’s Week 0 matchup against North Carolina in Dublin. The spread for this game initially opened at 6.5, but has since been bet up to TCU -8.5.
PFF’s preview highlights just how many questions surround the Tar Heels heading into Year 2 of the Bill Belichick era. North Carolina went just 4-8 last season, while its offense ranked 98th nationally in PFF grade and outside the top 100 in both yards per play and EPA per play. There are reasons for optimism with new offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino, but asking that unit to immediately turn things around against TCU is a tough task.
On the other side, TCU has won nine games in each of the past two seasons and enters this matchup with a more proven roster. The Horned Frogs are breaking in Harvard transfer Jaden Craig at quarterback, but his deep-ball ability stands out. He ranked second in the FCS with 31 big-time throws last season and tied for fifth nationally with 32 completions of 20-plus yards. He should have opportunities against North Carolina’s man-heavy scheme.
I also have more confidence in the Big 12 than the ACC in this matchup. Historically, the Big 12 has been the stronger football conference, and TCU has consistently played against a high level of competition. That conference strength, combined with TCU’s recent success, makes me more comfortable laying the points. The Horned Frogs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against ACC opponents, while going 6-1 straight up during that stretch.
There are certainly concerns with laying points in the first game of the season, especially with TCU breaking in a new quarterback. But I believe the Horned Frogs are simply the more complete and reliable team. TCU -6.5 at -163 is my lean for Week 0.
