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Sometimes you want to make a quick pitstop, empty the bladder, grab a bag of salty snacks and limber up the limbs before hitting the open road again. For the fast-minded who enjoy simple $2 scratchers hoping to uncover the jackpot-winning image, here are quick thoughts and the lean on Tennessee vs. Illinois.
No. 1 Tennessee (9-0) at Illinois (7-2)
Date: Saturday, December 14
Time: 5:30 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
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The pick — Illinois ML vs. Tennessee (+128, FanDuel)
Popularity polls are for uninformed casuals.
In the grand scheme, the pecking order churned out weekly by the Associated Press is largely a meaningless sorting of basketball brand names. The Selection Committee, whose job is to set, vet and scrub the NCAA Tournament field every March, doesn’t incorporate such weightless rankings in its process. However, advanced metric measurements, like those visible via the NET and KenPom rankings, play influential factors in determining team seeds.
Those debates won’t occur until well into next year. Right now, half-hearted fans who still have spiral twirls and splashy touchdowns top of mind consider poll numbers next to team names to be everything.
On Saturday, this slightly biased Orange and Blue fan, accompanied by his youngest son (yes, I somehow found a mate), will be among the 16,000 strong at the State Farm Center in Champaign.
Illinois is 2-1 in its last three home games against No. 1-ranked teams. Overall, since 2004, it’s 2-5 when facing top dogs. Memories of the 2004-05 squad featuring Dee Brown, Deron Williams and Luther Head taking down then-No. 1 Wake Forest and Chris Paul at the Assembly Hall still feel like yesterday.
So, what are the critical areas for Brad Underwood’s bunch to spring the upset against top-ranked Tennessee? Here are my top four.
1. Minimize self-inflicted wounds. On occasion, turnovers have piled up for the Illini this season. They’ve only coughed up the rock on 15.5% of their possessions (No. 55 nationally), but give the Volunteers an inch and they take a mile. Tennessee has forced a miscue on 21.7% of opponent possessions, the 47th-best mark in the country. The SEC powerhouse relentlessly hounds and pressures. Projected NBA lottery pick Kasparas Jakucionis must play controlled and collected from start to finish. If he doesn’t, easy sprint-out buckets will continuously plunge daggers.
2. Be arc assassins. Eight games in, Illinois has jacked the eighth-most 3-pointers in all of college basketball. In total, 52.6% of its shots come from distance. The Vols are white-on-rice defensively, giving up only 26.5% shooting from the perimeter. Deadly in their own right, guard Chaz Lanier and company are draining 37.7% from downtown. If Jakucionis’ ridiculous step-backs steadily fall (44.2 3PT%), Evansville transfer Ben Humrichous (35.7 3PT%) can find his stroke, 7-footer Tomislav Ivisic dominates the pick-and-pop (36.4 3PT%) and off-the-bench bucket-getter Will Riley emits fiery fingers (40.9 3PT%), the Illini will sit in the captain’s chair.
3. Clean the glass. This is unmistakably critical. As Underwood would candidly admit, his squad has executed weakly at times on the offensive glass (see Northwestern). Generating second chances and preventing additional opportunities for the opposition are musts against a Tennessee team that gets after it around the tin (40.2 OR%). Ivisic has to avoid whistles and freshman big Morez Johnson has to register impactful minutes for Illinois to hang. Humrichous also must box out like he's supposed to at 6-foot-9.
4. Speed and D. The Volunteers and Illini both tuck inside the top 10 nationally in effective field-goal percentage defense. Each team possesses length, but Illinois has more across-the-roster size by comparison. If the Illini apply their usual stranglehold, scoring will become a chore. Their height at the guard position, in particular, gives them the advantage.
One more thing: Bank on Underwood emphasizing a breakneck pace. Tennessee, which ranks No. 262 in adjusted tempo, prefers a Keith Sweat slow jam. Getting out ahead of the Vols before their defense sets is undeniably key. If successful, the visitors' discomfort is bound to increase.
Thunderous sounds are sure to bounce off the concrete ceiling inside the architecturally historic State Farm Center. Out-of-conference No. 1-ranked teams rarely travel to Champaign. Wake Forest was the last and only squad this century to make the trip, doing so a decade ago.
As I’ve stated before, this is the most-talented team at Illinois since the national title runner-up in ‘05. It’s arguably a Final Four contender.
Tennessee is good, damn good, but the Vols aren’t invincible. In a season in which parity is reigning supreme, Rick Barnes' boys are very beatable.
In a game that will be hard fought from beginning to end, this attendee, speaking as objectively as possible, believes the Illini will cut down a No. 1 team for the first time since defeating Indiana in 2013. If that happens, we’re streaking the quad. Screw the teeth-chattering cold.
Season record: 9-6, +2.99 units
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