Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
Welcome to a wonderful weekend of family, food, drinks, and football. It is worth noting, that favorites have been the profitable side on Thanksgiving. Since 2004, favorites are 46-8 straight up and 36-18 ATS. Touchdown favorites since 2006 have been 21-2 straight up and 17-6 ATS. This will be the inaugural black Friday game.
Green Bay Packers (4-6) @ Detroit Lions (8-2)
Lions -7.5 Current Splits LIONS (76% money/70% bets)
Total 46.5 or 47.5 Current Splits OVER (66% money/ 54% bets)
The Lions defense has looked suspect lately, and outside of a couple games vs lowly offensive teams (Bucs 6, Raiders 14, and Flacons 6) most of their games have sailed over. Pull back to week 4, in Green Bay, 54 points were scored in this matchup. I think points will be scored here and if it’s anything like the last matchup, David Montgomery should feast. He had 121 on 32 carries and 3 touchdowns, if you are looking at props. My favorite way to attack this is with a Wong Teasers teasing the Lions down to -1.
Washington Commanders (4-7) @ Dallas Cowboys (7-3)
Cowboys -10.5 or -11 Current Splits COWBOYS (69% money/ 70% bets)
Total 48.5 Current Splits OVER (71% money/57% bets)
Dak is 9-2 vs the Commanders in his career and their average margin of victory is about 16 points per game. Amazingly, Dallas is 1-11 ATS in their last 12 on Thanksgiving. Dallas in undefeated at home this year and they are winning an average of 27.5 points per game. The last thing the public saw was Dallas dominating and Washington losing by big favorites to the lowly NY Giants. Tough to find an angle for me with conflicting data. I’d lean over and especially Cowboys over team total. I’ll continue to look for an angle, so make sure to check twitter if I find one. If you think Dallas can for sure win, they can be included in a 10 point 3 team teasers.
San Francisco 49ers (7-3) @ Seattle Seahawks (6-4)
49ers -6.5 or -7 Current Splits 49ERS (78% money/ 81% bets)
Total 43 or 43.5 OVER (54% money/ 57% bets)
Night favorites on Thanksgiving are 12-4 ATS and favorites of 7 or more on the road are 9-0 straight up and 8-1 ATS. The unders are 11-5. Seattle to me seems like they are slowly falling apart. They need to keep this game low scoring to have a chance. With the game being in Seattle, I’ll be looking at the under here. I can see the 49ers winning by 2 scores, but think this game can flirt around the spread. 49ers look like another good Wong teasers down to just winning the game.
Miami Dolphins (7-3) @ New York Jets (4-6)
Dolphins -9.5 or -10 DOLPHINS (84% money/ 85% bets)
Total 40 or 41 UNDER (69% money/44% bets)
The Jets are going with a new man under center this week. What one has to expect that means is a slow vanilla game plan, if the Jets want to compete. I have a tough time seeing a lot of points being scored in this one and bettors are agreeing with the early money pushing the total down. If you like the under make sure to catch it early, as 41 is a key number in NFL totals. I can see the number continuing to downtick as we approach Friday. Miami is another 3 team, 10 point, teaser candidate.
To recap our ideas here:
Lions/Packers: Over 46.5 as this total continues to uptick. Tease Lions to -0.5 David Montgomery Props
Cowboys/Commanders: 3 team 10 point teasers including Dallas
49ers/Seahawks: Under 43.5 and 49ers in a teaser
Dolphins/Jets: Under 41 and Miami in 3 team 10 point teaser
Follow me on wagerwire and download the app: Sign up for Sportsbooks and receive exclusive bonuses if you have not tried all of the books in your state.
One simple process will create an account at all of the books in your area. Sign up today using SPORTSBETSPLITS as the referral code. https://i58wy.app.link/7PMYs1r3yBb