Wimbledon is renowned for many traditions: the consumption of strawberries and cream, the all-white dress code for players, and especially the iconic grass courts; It is one of only 7 ATP-qualified tournaments that is played on grass. Another scarcity in the world of tennis? Left-handed players.
There are only 12 lefties sitting inside the ATP Top 100, and since the year 2000, only two lefties have managed to break into the Top 5: Jack Draper, who currently sits at four, and the legendary Rafael Nadal.
It’s no secret that grass courts decrease spin more than clay and hard courts do. Coupling this with the unique angles lefties can generate, it begs the question: What impact do handedness and playing surfaces have on betting market outcomes?
THE SERVE:
This hypothesis focuses on the most crucial shot in tennis–the serve. At the pro level, if your serve isn't dialed in, you have no shot at winning.
Left-handed players are able to serve wider on the ad side of the court, making it extremely difficult for right-handed players to return with their backhand. Does this angle correlate to a conversion of more points, sets, and matches won? To start, let’s look at the ace percentage for three left-handed players and three right-handed players on all 3 surfaces, over the past 52-weeks. I’ve taken the three highest ranked left-handed players and three right-handed players that are in comparable spots on the ATP ladder.
All three lefties had an above average ace percentage on grass, with both Ben Shelton’s and Jack Draper’s rates being significantly above the other surfaces at around 14% each. However, the extra production of aces on grass courts is not exclusive to left-handed players. Both Taylor Fritz and Holger Rune also fare better in the ace category when playing on grass courts, with Fritz’s percentage being exceptionally high near 17%. While a grass surface may impose a slight improvement in the number of aces for the top, left-handed players, it also seems to benefit the serves of right-handed players.
To further analyze the service advantage, let’s look at break percentage (the rate at which the player loses their service game).
While we see positive results on grass for Jack Draper and Ben Shelton, Ugo Humbert, another top, left-handed player, has his strongest service performances on clay courts. Moreover, we see these same positive signs from Taylor Fritz and Holger Rune. Since hand dominance does not conclusively support the idea of a grass court advantage, is there a different trait that does?
THE TRUE DOMINANCE:
As previously mentioned, grass courts significantly reduce spin on the ball, favoring players with big serves and powerful strokes. Therefore, it is no surprise that Jack Draper, Ben Shelton, and Taylor Fritz all see a lot of success on this surface. Another vital skill needed to succeed on grass is dynamic footwork. The champion of Wimbledon will be someone capable of getting to those powerful serves and deep, fast shots.
With all analysis taken into account, I believe Jack Draper will be the 2025 Wimbledon Champion for the following reasons:
- He has a great serve which can be a game changer on grass. He averages a 14.6% ace rate over the past year on grass with 68% of service points won. He also managed to save over 80% of break points he faced in the last year on grass.
- He’s a lefty. Although the statistics don’t back up a black-and-white advantage for hand dominance, he will still be able to exploit some of the angles and shots that only lefties can create. Remember, only 12 of the current ATP Top 100 are left-handed. The lefties still maintain an “element of surprise,” especially against inexperienced players.
- He’s from London and the home crowd will be showing their support. Being crowned Wimbledon champion is something every tennis player dreams about, but Draper has something more to fight for. A study published on Medium in 2022 showed that “Home advantage increases your chances of winning a match by about 10%, all other things being equal.”
Be on the lookout for any props regarding aces, breaks, or service games won for Jack Draper, Ben Shelton, Taylor Fritz, and any other powerful servers.
At somewhere around +1400 odds at US sportsbooks, I’d go for the home run and take Jack Draper to be your Men’s 2025 Wimbledon Champion.
As for the “lefty effect,” I wouldn’t live and die by it. It might show for some fun upsets by underdog lefties in the earlier rounds, but it likely won’t be the deciding factor in the tournament.
*All data gathered from tennisabstract.com
*Medium study: https://medium.com/@mathzero/quantifying-home-advantage-in-tennis-1411e31e660c