While we are still over two weeks away from the first UFC event of 2023, it is never too early to try and catch a good opening betting line when they are released. Since the UFC is currently in the midst of a multi–week hiatus for the holidays, sportsbooks have been in no rush to begin opening lines up for UFC Vegas 67 on January 14th.
Unfortunately, it was announced earlier this morning that the co-main event of the card between Shavkat Rakhmonov and Geoff Neal has been canceled after Neal withdrew from the fight. That leaves twelve fights currently scheduled for the event pending a late-notice replacement for Rakhmonov to face.
With this cancellation, there is only one Moneyline available for the event, meaning the other scheduled 11 fights (and prop markets) are still waiting to open. Assuming the oddsmakers are generous, and the betting lines aren’t set too high, there are a few fighters and/or props that I would recommend keeping an eye on as the markets slowly begin to open:
Nassourdine Imavov
Imavov is 12–3 in his professional career with a 75% finish rate in his wins (five knockouts, four submissions. He is 4–1 so far in the UFC and is currently riding a three-fight winning streak that included two KO/TKO stoppages.
Gastelum has a record of 17–8 with 13 of those wins via stoppage (six knockouts, seven submissions). He has a ton of UFC experience with 19 fights under the promotion’s banner, however, he has largely struggled in recent years and has lost five of his last six fights.
While Gastelum is the fighter in this matchup with five rounds of experience in the UFC, he has managed to go 0–4 in decisions that have gone the full 25 minutes. Imavov lands more strikes while absorbing less, and if this fight goes to the ground, I think Gastelum could find himself in quite a bit of trouble considering Imavov’s last two stoppage wins were via ground and pound.
While Imavov has a fairly high finishing rate and Gastelum has largely struggled in his last few fights, I would be pretty surprised if this one doesn’t at least make it to the start of Round 4. Imavov’s ML is currently hovering around -200 and another prop worth considering for this fight is Imavov to win in R4/5/Decision.
Umar Nurmagomedov
Nurmagomedov is 15–0 during his professional career with eight of those wins coming via stoppage (one knockout, seven submissions). He is 3–0 so far in the promotion and is the cousin of UFC Lightweight legend Khabib Nurmagomedov, who retired in 2020 with a perfect career record of 29–0.
His opponent at UFC Vegas 67, Raoni Barcelos, has a career record of 17–3 with ten victories by stoppage and one of his three losses via submission. Barcelos is coming off a win in his last fight but lost his previous two against opponents who aren’t on the same level as Nurmagomedov.
WagerWire
Expect Nurmagomedov to immediately look for takedowns in this matchup, and unless Barcelos’ takedown defense is immaculate, sooner or later this fight will go down to the ground.
Once it does, Nurmagomedov will consistently chase submissions, and I think there’s a good chance he finds one. While his Moneyline is likely to open in a high range, keep an eye out for the props to release on Nurmagomedov by Submission and Decision/Sub Double Chance.
Mateusz Rebecki
Rebecki is 16–1 in his career with 14 of those wins coming via stoppage (eight knockouts, six submissions), and was knocked out in his only loss. He will be making his UFC debut after a strong showing on Dana White’s Contenders Series Earlier this year and will be looking for his 14th consecutive victory when he faces Omar Morales.
Morales is 11–3 in his career and seven of those wins have come via finish (two knockouts, five submissions). However, he has lost three of his last four fights and has been stopped in two of those losses as well. He has also clearly struggled against the better competition he’s faced.
While I am normally hesitant about fighters making their debut with a new promotion, this fight will occur in the UFC Apex, which is the same venue he earned his contract at on DWCS. Rebecki should be the more well-rounded fighter in this matchup and I like his chances to get this one done.
Since the betting lines for this fight still haven’t been released, hopefully, the Rebecki ML will open with some solid value. If not, I would recommend looking into the Rebecki Inside the Distance or Fight Does Not Go the Distance props.