I’ve known Max Meyer for many years, going back to when he was running sports betting content for Sports Illustrated. Since then, he’s worked at various sportsbooks — Caesars, Fanatics, PointsBet and William Hill — over the past five years.
He’s also trying to help people become better bettors in his FREE discord by providing access to important betting information and strategies to help grow your bankroll. No big deal, but his live bets (mostly college basketball) are posted in the discord and are 76-63, (+7.85 units) heading into tonight’s games. He’s been sharing some wisdom in my paid chat on a daily basis as well.
I asked him to share some more of that wisdom to help out my subscribers, especially those just getting started in sports betting.
Here are three tips from Max to become a smarter sports bettor:
1. Stop Betting on Parlays
Yes, parlays with long-shot odds are enticing since you only have to bet a little to potentially win a lot. And it seems like everywhere on social media someone is winning a five- or six-figure parlay off a $10 wager. However, parlays are the exact type of bet that sportsbooks want you to make.
Don’t believe me? Believe the data. According to the Illinois Gaming Board, sportsbooks captured a 4.9% hold (the percentage of money that sportsbooks keep for every dollar wagered) on single bets from Illinois bettors; on parlays, that hold percentage shot all the way up to 18.2%.
It’s hard enough to win when you are betting -110 sides one at a time, but having to add other outcomes to your bet makes it borderline impossible. Now, if you want to do a long-shot parlay once in a while for big events like the Super Bowl or March Madness, you can have a little fun. But if you are sweating out parlays daily or weekly, your bankroll will evaporate quickly.
2. Pay Attention to Line Movement
The best way to figure out the “sharpest” bet for a game is to look at the line movement ahead of time, and remember that not every number on a specific side is an optimal play.
Let’s take a look at an example in college basketball between Auburn and Iowa State back on Nov. 25. Auburn opened as a 1.5-point favorite on FanDuel at a neutral site in Maui, was bet up to as high as -4.5 and closed at -3.5. Sportsbooks move odds whenever they are getting respected action on it or if they’re copying the market to get ahead of that incoming money.
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Based on that line movement, Auburn -1.5 was a strong play because it was bet up a few points. Sportsbooks finally found Iowa State resistance at +4.5 and that action brought the line down to Auburn -3.5 before the game tipped off. So Iowa State +4.5 was also a good bet according to the market.
Now how can you use that information to your advantage? Unfortunately for an average bettor, it is impossible to beat the market (and the best bettors in the world) pregame without an edge. But that’s where live betting comes in.
Auburn trailed by as many as 18 points in the first half and the live line was as high as Auburn +11.5. You could have grabbed Auburn as an underdog and beaten the pregame market by getting the Tigers as an underdog. Now this approach risks losing that side entirely if Auburn was blowing out Iowa State from the jump, but I would rather have no Auburn bet at all than taking the closing number of Auburn -3.5 (or really any number that wasn’t the best in the market).
Auburn ended up winning that game by 2 points, meaning Auburn -1.5 (the opener that was bet up) and Iowa State +4.5 (where the market first saw Iowa State resistance) both won. Meanwhile, Auburn -3.5 (the closing number on a “sharp” side) lost. Sports betting is all about what number you get in at, not backing the team that you think will cover.
So where can you find line movement? Covers.com has a few sportsbooks’ line moves for every game on its website. If you’re more serious about sports betting and are willing to pay for a tool, Unabated is a great option.
3. Bet Responsibly and Don’t Chase
Sports betting is not easy. There will be losing days. But it’s important to make sure those losing days do not turn into catastrophic days by utilizing bankroll management.
First, figure out an amount ($10, $25, $50, etc.) that you’re comfortable wagering on each bet. That’s your standard unit and you should not deviate from that number until you’re able to grow your bankroll. This should be an amount that should not cause you to be uncomfortable during every bet – never bet what you can’t afford to lose.
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Let’s say you start off your day with two losses (it sucks, but it happens to everyone). The worst mistake you can make is doubling your next bet to try and get close to even with a win. That’s called chasing and it’s an extremely dangerous path to be on. Just because you lost your first two bets, does not mean you’re due to win your next one.
If you lose that bigger 2-unit bet, you’re now down 4 units on the day and could be prone to chase again with another 2-unit bet or, even worse, a 4-unit bet to try and get back to even.
You need patience when it comes to sports betting; it’s not a get-rich-quick scheme. You have to accept that losing days will happen along with winning days. Just stick with your standard unit size and don’t create a hole that’s impossible to dig out of.
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