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NFL — 9/14/23

Thursday Night Football and Early Weekend Preview

By 
@SportsBetSplits
Betting Contributor
NFL

Minnesota Vikings (0-1) (0-1ats) (0-1 O/U)

@ Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) (1-0ats) (1-0 O/U)

Eagles -6 or -6.5

Total 48.5 - 50

The majority of bets (67%) and money (77%) have come in on the favorite in tonight’s matchup yet we have seen this line drop from as high as -7.5 before settling here at 6 or 6.5. I could make a case for either team but would probably lean towards Minnesota and the points, but it’s not even a consideration for me.  0-1 teams facing 1-0 teams support the Vikings, yet road teams don’t seem to fair as well on a short week.  The over is catching most of the money at 56% while 58% of the bets are on the under.  This is interesting after the 12-4 Under record last week. In the last 5 years, in this Week 2 TNF game, 4 of the 5 games have had at least 51 points scored.  Numbers seem to support an over here which would be a contrarian play.

Washington Commanders @ Denver Broncos

Total 39-39.5

I wanted to talk about this total briefly, because I can’t for the life of me figure out why it is as high as it is and seems to be creeping up.  Both teams have great defenses and struggle on offense.  Most of the money seems to be on the under at 49% but only 27% of bets.  I’ll keep a close eye but the Under is my early lean as a best bet.

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals

Total 46-46.5

Early money indicates it is backing the over (86% money/72%bets).  This number seems off to me and I’ll be playing the under.  Both teams struggled last week and both QBs got off to poor starts.  Burrow still seems injured.  The total is starting to tick down a bit moving to 46 at most shops.  If this line continues to dip, which I think it will, that will further point to a lower scoring game.

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