Primetime NFL unders continued their streak with 3 more going under the total last week.  This brings Primetime unders to 25-7 and 11 straight.  I certainly would only lean to unders at this points, but think there is analysis to every game.  Let’s dive in below.

Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) (4-4-1 ATS) @ Baltimore Ravens (7-3) (6-4 ATS)

Ravens -3.5 Current Splits BENGALS (61% handle/ 61% bets)

Total 46 or 46.5 Current Splits UNDER (78% handle/43% bets)

The Ravens could easily be 10-0 and would have a completely different ring to them if they were.  I think the majority over bettors and the market looks at Cincy in a divisional, almost must game, getting over a FG as strong value.  On the otherhand, Baltimore being a 3.5 favorite means they are a strong home favorite.  I’d lean the Ravens but can see an argument either way and just think this line is lined perfectly.  My opinion is the same on the total.  46 is perfectly lined and I could see logic either way.  I have to keep on betting the primetime unders but have a worrisome with this matchup.  Baltimore has been on a tear offensively and the Bengals have scored 24 or more in 4 of the last 5.  Too much conflicting data in this one for me.  My best option is on Mark Andrews, who is one of Lamar Jackson’s favorite targets>  He had 5 receptions and a TD in their week 2 showdown.  Andrews any time TD is lined at +145.

Las Vegas Raiders (5-5) (5-5 ATS) @ Miami Dolphins (6-3) (6-3 ATS)

Dolphins -13.5 Current Splits DOLPHINS (85% handle/70% bets)

Total 46.5 Current Splits UNDER (62% handle/36% bets)

The Dolphins narrative have been the beat up on inferior opponents.  Here comes another inferior opponent on the schedule.  13.5 is the highest I’d look to lay in this one.  Once it goes to 14, you are losing a ton of value.  If you like the Dolphins like I do, I’d bet this before Sunday.  Another angle, if you think the Dolphins will show up offensively, their team total is 30.5.  In their 6 wins, they have gone over this number in all but 1.

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) (6-3 ATS) @ Cleveland Browns (6-3) (5-3-1 ATS)

Browns -1 Current Spits STEELERS (54%handle/ 53% bets)

Total 33 Current Splits UNDER (77% handle/53% bets)

The DeShaun Watson season ending news is pretty devastating for Cleveland.  This line shifted from Cleveland -4 to -1 after the news broke.  Straight up, these numbers are unbettable to me, but a  6.5 Wong teaser to Steelers +7.5 sets up nicely in a low total game.  When a total is this low, points are expected to be much more valuable.

Candidates for teasing partners:

Jaguars - 7 to -0.5 vs Titans

Lions -7.5 to -1 vs Bears

Vikings +2.5 to +9 vs Broncos

Eagles +2.5 to + 9 vs Chiefs

You can also do a 3 team, 10 point teasers

Steelers +1 to +11 vs Browns

Cowboys -10.5 to -0.5 vs Panthers

49ers -11.5 to -1.5 vs Bucs

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