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Prime-time NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you.
Prop play — SGP: Justin Herbert OVER 31.5 pass attempts, Justin Herbert 20+ pass completions (-102, Caesars)
You can have your gingerbread men, traditional sugar or snickerdoodles. THE elite Christmas cookie in this consumer’s mind is the unrivaled peanut butter blossom.
When made right, they’re soft, garnished with a partially melted kiss and downright delicious. Their existence — and mom’s delivery of them in mass quantities every holiday season — is why exhaustive hours in the gym are spent in January.
Herbert’s arm is in a class similar to this scribe’s favorite seasonal confectionery.
Equipped with a gun velocity on par with Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, the Chargers quarterback — in terms of baseline skills — is one of the NFL’s best. His touch, whether on immediate or long-distance throws, is equally impressive. According to PlayerProfiler, Herbert ranks top-10 in deep-ball completion rate, total air yards and pressured catchable pass rate. Whether against man or zone schemes, he can carve up opposing defenses when given time.
The last time he faced the Broncos in Week 6, Herbert completed 21 of 34 passes. Topping both requirements in five of his last 10 games, he could easily repeat the feats in the rematch. Denver is No. 1 in EPA per play defense since Week 10, but eight QBs, including Herbert, have totaled what’s needed in a game against the Broncos this season.
Yes, game script will play a very influential factor in determining a win or a loss, but considering how well the Broncos have performed down the homestretch, a low-scoring field-goal fest seems unlikely. Add in Herbert’s tender ankle, a condition which could keep him more pocket-tied, and the odds of the above SGP cashing only increase.
Now, if you’ll kindly excuse me, this famished writer “needs” another blossom, or six.
Prop season record: 15-21 -7.24 units
SGP play — Bo Nix 15+ rushing yards, Bo Nix 1+ pass/rush touchdown, Broncos-Chargers UNDER 49.5 total points (+140, ESPN Bet)
Bo Nix 15+ rushing yards. Before the regular season began, this gamer totally Bo-lieved the rookie QB would greatly outproduce very modest expectations. His pacesetting accuracy at Oregon was nothing shy of phenomenal. So was his mobility. In a neck-and-neck race with Jayden Daniels for Offensive Rookie of the Year and with his squad on a playoff path, Nix should showcase his multipurpose wares under the prime-time lights. Scrambling quarterbacks have logged considerable success against the Chargers. Though they rank in the bottom third league-wide in total QB pressures, the Bolts have given up the 11th-most rushing yards to the position (23.0 yards per game). In fact, a passer has reached 15 or more ground yards against them in six of the last seven weeks. Nix is unlikely to run for another 61 yards against the Chargers as he did in Week 6, but with an average of 5.4 rushing attempts per game, he’s likely to achieve the required number for the eighth time this season.
Bo Nix 1+ pass/rush touchdown. Doubling down on the Bo-lieve narrative, Denver’s current and future franchise QB is bound to score in some capacity. The beauty of ESPN Bet is the fact this option even exists in the same-game parlay software. Every other ‘book — whether it’s DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM or others — only offers each TD method independently. Nix, who ranks No. 11 in red-zone completion percentage and has crossed the chalk with his legs four times this season, has spun a TD pass or bolted in for six in 11 of 14 games. In the first entanglement with the Chargers in October, he threw for two touchdowns. Given the Bolts’ defensive deterioration in recent weeks — they’re No. 25 in EPA per play since Week 10 — and Nix’s prior success, this leg should be a minimal lift.
Broncos-Chargers UNDER 49.5 total points. As stated repeatedly in the space, mixing in a little negative correlation is a fantastic way to confuse the algo and boost the juice. The first game between the division foes at Empower Field yielded 39 total points. The Chargers’ well-documented defensive struggles could ratchet the sweat, but Denver’s outstanding chops in the area should alleviate a shirt change. Over the last five weeks, the Broncos are No. 1 in EPA per play defense. Also, with both teams well outside the top 10 in several offensive EPA categories since Week 1, a contest somewhere in the 40s should unfold. Just stay far, far away, dastardly overtime.
SGP season record: 14-24, -0.43 units
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