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Prime-time NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you.
Prop play — Devaughn Vele OVER 3.5 receptions (+115, DraftKings)
Every year, random bags of cash fall from the sky and reward backers with unexpected riches.
Take Devaughn Vele, for example.
An already forgotten Week 1 standout, the Broncos wide receiver grabbed a team-high eight Bo Nicks passes against Seattle. His generous gift from coaches for a breakout performance? Four straight healthy scratches. Finally granted another opportunity to showcase his wares Week 6 against the Chargers, Vele proved the previous eruption was no fluke. Targeted six times against one of the stiffest pass defenses in the NFL, the rookie hauled in four catches for 78 yards.
Don’t you dare deactivate him again, Sean Payton.
Operating almost exclusively out of the slot (79.4% of snaps), the 2024 seventh-round pick from Utah could again astonish.
The Saints were absolutely dismantled by Baker Mayfield and his merry band of Buccaneers in Week 5 to drop from No. 4 to No. 14 in dropback success rate defense. Most appealing for the above bet’s purposes, Vele is slated to mostly square off against SCB Alontae Taylor. This season, the accommodating DB has surrendered the third-most receptions (24) of any slot corner. Vele, who stands at 6-foot-5 and is equipped with 4.47 40-yard wheels, is likely to win multiple hand-to-hand battles.
Slot-featured wideouts CeeDee Lamb, Ray-Ray McCloud, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Chris Godwin previously abused New Orleans in underneath coverage. Of course, Vele isn’t exactly the same caliber of a playmaker, but lightning could strike a third time.
At plus money and with an accurate QB chucking him the pill, Vele proves he’s no aberration.
Prop season record: 9-9 -0.60 units
SGP play — Bo Nix OVER 15.5 rushing yards, Spencer Rattler OVER 15.5 rushing yards, Alvin Kamara OVER 20.5 receiving yards (+146, DraftKings)
Bo Nix OVER 15.5 rushing yards. Give yourself a reason to swallow the worm on a game perfectly crafted for #TequilaThursday. Nix has been one of the run-happiest quarterbacks in the league, bolting 6.2 times per game and averaging a significant 30.0 rushing yards per game. In fact, the Denver rookie has achieved the needed number in four of six games. The Saints are only middle of the pack at No. 18 in pocket pressure percentage, ramping QB discomfort on 21.1% of dropbacks. However, whether on designed or unscripted scampers, Nix should churn the legs frequently enough to sprint past 16 ground yards.
Spencer Rattler OVER 15.5 rushing yards. The rookie snake should slither Jake Plummer style fairly often on Thursday night. “Reckless abandon” best describes Rattler’s playing demeanor. He’s aggressive and advantageous, whether pushing defenses through the air or calling his own number on the ground. Last week in his NFL debut against Tampa Bay, the fifth-round pick tucked the pill four times for 27 yards. Due to Denver’s assertive nature on defense — the Broncos rank No. 5 in pocket pressure rate at 28.9% — four QBs have tallied at least 16 rushing yards against them this season, including ancient Aaron Rodgers. With potentially a rag-tag arsenal to work with (Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave are highly questionable), Rattler will be occasionally forced to move the chains on his own.
Alvin Kamara OVER 20.5 receiving yards. The supremely flexible RB lives in the matrix. He catches. He bends. He contorts. And he racks yards in the open field as a pass catcher. He’s run a route on 61.0% of his snaps, the fourth-highest mark in the league. Attracting an NFL-high 21.6% target share and averaging a hefty 2.56 yards per route run, Kamara has topped 21 receiving yards in all six games. Most importantly, given New Orleans’ uncertainties at WR, he is sure to be Rattler’s best friend. In last week’s dismantling by the Buccaneers, Kamara caught five passes from the rookie QB. Given the presumed workload and Denver’s generosity to RBs (48.4 receiving yards allowed per game), this leg cruises to a sweat-free cover.
SGP season record: 5-13, -6.40 units
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