Thursday Night Football picks: Buccaneers at Falcons
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Prime-time NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you.
Prop play — Baker Mayfield 10+ rushing yards (-120, ESPN Bet)
In a NFC South clash oozing with star power on both sides of the ball, a quarterback’s scrambling legs most lured this bettor’s bottom dollar. Surprised? Don’t be.
Among a bevy of wacky stats, Mayfield has more rushing yards (65) than known opportunistic scamperers Patrick Mahomes (61), Trevor Lawerence (61), Joe Burrow (38) and Dak Prescott (21). Heck, Daniel Jones only has five more rushing yards over the same number of games.
Mayfield, who flashed 4.84 40-yard wheels at the NFL Scouting Combine, isn’t leaving chasers choking dust, but he’s advantageous and crafty in accumulating ground yards. On his 12 rushing attempts, he forced three missed tackles and almost impossibly gained 6.08 yards after initial contact. Watch out, Derrick Henry.
Presumably on another 2-4 self-called bolts, Mayfield is a strong candidate to reach 10 or more rushing yards for the fourth time in five games.
Atlanta, an exploitable No. 24 in rush EPA D, allowed Justin Field and Jalen Hurts to run relatively uninhibitedly in Weeks 1 and 2. Of course, Mayfield isn’t in the same class of runner, but Mahomes scooted his way to 17 rushing yards against the Falcons in Week 3.
Raheem Morris’ pass rush isn’t the most pressing — Atlanta ranks No. 27 in pocket pressure rate at 15.3% — but Mayfield only needs to feel the heat a couple of times to cash.
Though he’s not “at home” anymore, the former insurance pitchman will chew up the necessary real estate on Thursday night. Book it like Jameis Winston circa 2018, Baker.
Prop season record: 6-7 -1.35 units
SGP — Baker Mayfield 175+ passing yards, Drake London UNDER 80.5 receiving yards, Bijan Robinson OVER 20.5 receiving yards (+114, DraftKings)
Baker Mayfield 175+ passing yards. Presumably Tom Brady’s “favorite” QB, Mayfield should channel his culture of happiness into positive air gains like his predecessor. Atlanta is a ho-hum No. 19 in pass EPA defense, conceding 198.8 yards per game. Yes, the Falcons also have only surrendered 6.21 passing yards per attempt, but a matchup against more conservative throwers in Fields and Hurts somewhat inflated their surface performance. In Atlanta’s other two matchups, Mahomes and Derrick Carr easily crossed the 175-yard mark. Overall, three QBs crossed the low threshold against Raheem Morris’ team in four games. Mayfield is a dismal No. 30 in total air yards but No. 2 in deep-ball completion percentage and top-five in adjusted completed percentage, so he’s made the most of his opportunities. Hitting the OVER in three of four games, he should spiral passes to Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and others steadily.
Drake London UNDER 80.5 receiving yards. Hold off on ordering a heaping pile of bangers and mash. London shouldn’t come calling, even in a matchup against a supposedly suspect Tampa Bay secondary. In reality, the Buccaneers have held their own in coverage, ranking No. 13 in pass EPA D. Through four weeks, only Detroit’s Amon-Ra St. Brown has tallied 80 or more receiving yards against them. The primary reason why? CB Zyon McCollum has annoyed assignments like a nagging mother hurling text reminders about your Aunt Edna’s birthday. The No. 1 overall rated DB in coverage grade at Pro Football Focus, McCollum has given up only a 37.5 catch percentage and 43.0 NFL passer rating. London’s No. 63 standing in aDOT (8.3) and No. 43 ranking in total air yards only tack on to the FADE argument. For the fifth-straight week, London fails to cross even the 70-yard mark.
Bijan Robinson OVER 20.5 receiving yards. Yes, Coach Morris, “stats are for losers.” However, for the love of the fantasy/gambling gods, serve your most explosive running back the touches he rightfully deserves. Based on the matchup, those opportunities are likely to occur in the pass game. Bijan has run a route on 59.5% of snaps, caught 93.8% of his targets and averaged a very healthy 9.0 yards per reception. In all four games, he’s posted at least 21 receiving yards. Only the Bills have surrendered more receptions and receiving yards to RBs than Tampa Bay. Expect the generosity to continue. Give him the damn rock, Raheem.
SGP season record: 4-9, -3.70 units
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