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Prime-time NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you.
Prop play — Jayden Reed OVER 21.5 yards longest catch at Lions (-110, BetMGM)
The greatest prospector in the North, Yukon Cornelius, would wholeheartedly agree Packers-Lions is the motherlode of matchups. It’s GOLD, PURE SILVER AND GOLD!
With a game total in the low 50s, statistically rich performances are seemingly a foregone conclusion.
In the first matchup between the NFC North adversaries — a lower-scoring Week 9 affair in which Detroit bested Green Bay 24-14 at Lambeau Field — Reed was unstoppable. Despite his squad catching the L, the Packers wide receiver finished with five catches for 113 receiving yards. Toasting Amik Robertson not once but twice on explosive plays, he hauled in passes of 41 and 32 yards.
Reed typically thrives as a dirty worker underneath, but when let loose, he’s more than capable of swallowing hashmarks in large quantities. This season, he ranks top-10 among all wideouts in total yards after catch (307), yards per route run (2.70), yards per target (12.0) and average separation yards per target (2.52). He has also averaged 15.8 yards per catch, posted the highest passer rating when targeted (144.4) and burned secondaries 11 times on receptions of 22 or more yards.
Throw in his occasional ground contributions, and the sophomore wideout is arguably one of the NFL’s most electric playmakers, no matter the position.
The Lions exhibit few weaknesses. However, defending deep balls is a vulnerability. They have surrendered 38 pass plays of 20 or more yards, the 12th-most in the NFL. Even though Detroit is only No. 25 in most air yards allowed, chunk-minded passers have occasionally teed off. Green Bay’s Jordan Love, who is No. 3 in air yards per attempt (9.4), is sure to take his chances.
Reed, who lines up in the slot 63.1% of the time, is likely to again exchange greetings with Robertson, a DB who’s given up the 23rd-most yards to his assignments.
Strike it rich, Reed.
Prop season record: 14-18 -5.14 units
SGP play — Josh Jacobs 40+ rushing yards, Jahmyr Gibbs 50+ rushing yards, David Montgomery 40+ rushing yards (+114, DraftKings)
Josh Jacobs 40+ rushing yards. Putting faith in every noteworthy running back in the same game may seem counterintuitive, but seeing how both offenses lean heavily on the run — Detroit is No. 3 in run percentage and Green Bay is No. 4 — it’s entirely buyable. Jacobs, who has registered 67.8% of his team’s opportunity share, is a certifiable workhorse. Preseason doubters were somehow skeptical about his projected volume, but the former Raider has transitioned seamlessly to northern latitude life. The Packers RB has blasted to 40 or more ground yards in every game this season, including notching 95 yards on 13 carries in the first meetup with Detroit. He’s also top-10 in YAC per attempt (3.51) and missed tackles forced (54). Yes, Dan Campbell’s crew, which is No. 7 in rush EPA defense since Week 9, has surrendered only 3.96 yards per carry and 66.3 rushing yards per game to RBs, but Jacobs won’t be denied.
Jahmyr Gibbs 50+ rushing yards. A Speedy Gonzalez in the open field, Gibbs has sprint speed for days. Without question an elite game-breaker, “Sonic” is the perfect lightning complement to the more powerful “Knuckles” (aka #MandatoryMontgomery). On a yards-per-touch basis, no qualifying rusher has tallied a higher number than GIbbs (6.4). Making the most of his 13.6 carries per game, the Lions’ second-year back ranks No. 10 in YAC per attempt (3.50) and No. 7 in total missed tackles forced (42). Having raced past 50 rushing yards in 11 straight games, Gibbs’ streak should continue. Green Bay slots at only No. 20 in rush EPA D over the last five weeks, giving up 4.03 yards per carry and 78.5 rushing yards per game to RBs. Identical to the first matchup, Gibbs dashes for at least 50.
David Montgomery 40+ rushing yards. Featuring Montgomery somewhere in this space was entirely predictable. This David dork loves him like a newborn son. Though not as efficient as his backfield compadre, Detroit’s thunder is no ineffective plodder. Montgomery is top-20 among all NFL RBs in yards created per touch (3.99), YAC per attempt (3.20) and total missed tackles forced (38). He’s also reached the required 40 rushing yards in seven of 12 games. As detailed above with Gibbs, the friendly on-paper matchup against the Packers only raises confidence. Montgomery’s Week 9 numbers against Green Bay — 17 carries for 73 yards — further the optimism. For the seventh time this season, Monty and Gibbs hit their needed marks in the same game.
SGP season record: 14-21, +1.27 units
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