Thursday Night Football picks: Patriots at Jets

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Prime-time NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you.

Prop Play: Braelon Allen OVER 20.5 rushing yards vs. Patriots (-115, Caesars)

Allen is an emerging weapon on a Jets squad that wants to keep backfield centerpiece Breece Hall upright. The rookie’s growing snap share from Week 1 (18.0%) to Week 2 (35.1%) is no fluke.

Robert Saleh has always envisioned the Wisconsin product to be an occasionally used rolling wheel of cheddar. As Big Ten defenders can attest, the 20-year-old is a load to corral. Still unable to sip a Spotted Cow legally, Allen has averaged 6.6 yards per touch and a ridiculous 4.63 YAC per attempt on just 8.3% of the opportunity share.

New England’s defensive front has plugged gaps consistently to begin the season as its No. 9 rush EPA D standing shows. The Patriots also limited Bengals and Seahawks rushers to only 3.58 yards per carry. However, operating behind New York’s elite offensive line and coming off a sensational seven carries for 33 yards at Tennessee last Sunday, the former Badger bangs home at least 21 yards on roughly 6-8 carries.

Allen’s role as an 8-12 touch per game back is presumably here to stay.

Prop season record: 3-4 -1.20 units

SGP: Game UNDER 4.5 total touchdowns, Breece Hall 3+ receptions, Antonio Gibson 10+ rushing yards (+125, Caesars)

Game UNDER 4.5 total touchdowns. The kickers better have hit the pilates machine this week and stretched the legs in preparation for what could be a field goal fest in the Meadowlands. Both teams feature above-average overall defensive units and lean on their premier running backs. The intradivisional foes are quite familiar with one another, too. In a contest with a total sitting at 38.5 and given the tendencies of both squads, it seems quite unlikely five touchdowns occur. Our friends at BetAlytics have an OVER lean — they project a 40.58 final total — but unless a freakish D/ST touchdown or three are recorded, upright splits are the most likely scoring event.

Breece Hall 3+ receptions. As expected, Hall has become a jack of all trades. Showing off his versatility as a receiver, he’s been more than an in-the-flat safety valve for Aaron Rodgers. Through two games, Hall has amassed 49 routes run, tallying the highest target share (24.1%) of any NFL rusher. Targeted a whopping 14 times against the Niners and Titans, he snagged five and seven receptions, respectively. In their first two contests, the Pats conceded 10 catches on 12 targets to running backs, with Chase Brown and Zach Charbonnet each hauling in at least three passes. Unless the Jets somehow acquire an insurmountable early lead, Hall should ease bettors’ nerves with three grabs rather quickly.

Antonio Gibson 10+ rushing yards. Sometimes overlooked betting markets present golden opportunities. Yes, Rhamonde Stevenson is the main man in Foxboro, accounting for 80.0% of the team’s opportunity share. Even though Gibson is eating the scraps, he should earn enough of the workload to achieve what’s needed. Among RBs with at least 10 rushes, he’s second only to Bijan Robinson in YAC per attempt (6.64). New England’s offensive line is only No. 26 in run-blocking efficiency, according to Pro Football Focus, but an undeterred Gibson recorded 18 and 96 rushing yards in Weeks 1 and 2. Smashing into a wobbly Jets defensive line that’s No. 24 in rush EPA D, the chang-of-pace back plows ahead for 10-plus yards.

SGP season record: 1-5, -3.20 units

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