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Prime-time NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you.
Prop play — Jauan Jennings OVER 5.5 receptions (+115, DraftKings)
One man’s misfortune is another man’s opportunity. And, boy, is Jennings seizing the moment.
When Brandon Aiyuk exited stage left with a shredded ACL in Week 7, San Francisco’s then-unheralded third wheel elevated his game, earned the immediate trust of Brock Purdy and posted one crooked number after another. Most outstandingly, his ridiculous 11-175-3 eruption with Deebo Samuel sidelined against the Rams in Week 3 offered a sneak peak of sensational gains to come.
With three top-15 WR outputs in his last five games, Jennings has developed into a deployable weekly weapon in 12-team leagues. The converted college quarterback’s sensational YAC abilities, route versatility and general dependability have his stock on an upward trajectory.
On the season, Jennings ranks top-25 among all wideouts in route win rate (48.5%), fantasy points per route (0.56), QB rating when targeted (121.4), yards per target (9.9) and yards per route run (2.70). Most importantly for the action detailed above, he has snared six passes or more in three of his last five games.
In the first matchup against the Rams, Jennings ordered a bottle of cabernet, popped the cork and poured all the tannins over the head of slot cornerback Quentin Lake. Among single-game WR performances, the 49ers wideout’s 45.6 PPR points accumulated is second only to Ja’Marr Chase’s 55.4 fantasy point detonation against Baltimore in Week 10.
Jennings may not match that volcanic output, but Thursday’s matchup remains favorable.
As a collective, the Rams are No. 29 in pass EPA defense since Week 10, allowing the 14th-most receptions to wide receivers. In fairness, only five WRs have hauled in at least six passes against Sean McVay’s secondary. Still, Lake’s overwhelming generosity can’t be overlooked. The DB has given up a 66.0% catch rate and 106.7 passer rating to his assignments.
In the rematch, spew molten lava again, Jennings.
Prop season record: 15-19 -5.24 units
SGP play — Kyren Williams anytime touchdown, Puka Nacua 5+ receptions, Brock Purdy 15+ rushing yards (+175, ESPN Bet)
Kyren Willians anytime touchdown. Remember when everyone freaked out about Williams’ rumored kick returns duty? Yeah, this dolt regrettably slid him down the rankings somewhat as a result. Despite that August news story, the Rams’ starting running back has delivered on his early round fantasy promise. When it comes to scoring touchdowns, the guy has developed into a viable consistency king. No rusher has totaled more red-zone touches (55) than Williams. On his massive 83.0% opportunity share, he’s crossed the chalk in 10 of 13 games. Considering the -200 or higher juice, betting individually on another Williams end-zone plunge isn’t recommended. However, when savvily incorporated as a leg into a SGP, it spikes the potential payout. The Niners, who rank No. 25 in rush EPA D since Week 9, are a premium matchup. They have allowed 16 total TDs to RBs, including three to Williams in Week 3. Sound the siren for Kyren.
Puka Nacua 5+ receptions. Puka simply pummels anyone who attempts to defend him. His route versatility, body acrobatics, reliable hands and insane toe taps explain why he’s one of the game’s deadliest downfield weapons. Since his return from injury in Week 8, the Rams wide receiver has earned a ginormous 35.1% of the team’s target share and tallied a 100+ passer rating when targeted. Over that six-game stretch, he has grabbed at least five passes five times. Projected to square off with CB Deommodore Lenoir most often, Nacua should win his fair share of battles. The San Francisco cornerback has given up a 63.9% catch rate on 417 coverage snaps. Overall, eight WRs have topped what’s required against the 49ers. Puka will again dole out punishment.
Brock Purdy 15+ rushing yards. When the pressure ramps and opportunity strikes, Purdy is quite prone to calling his own number. In 12 games, he’s averaged 4.8 rushing attempts per contest, netted 23.5 rushing yards per game and bolted his way for 15-plus ground yards in a game seven times. In fact, the last time he faced the Rams in Week 3, he sprinted for 41 yards on a hefty 10 attempts. With L.A. ranking top-15 in both total pocket pressures (106) and pressure percentage rate (23.6%), the Niners’ opportunistic scrambler should tuck and run a minimum of five times. If that volume is achieved, 15 or more yards seems like a foregone conclusion. Scamper with breakneck speed, Brock.
SGP season record: 14-22, +1.57 units
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